Mercedes-Benz Faces Three Fronts at Once: Strikes at Home, a Buyback in Motion and a Wary Bet on China
Published on 11/02/2026 at 20:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Mercedes-Benz shareholders woke up to a familiar mix on Wednesday: a labor dispute on the factory floor, another week of share repurchases, and a cautious verdict from one of the most closely watched analysts covering the stock. None of the three tells the whole story on its own, but together they sketch a company managing cost pressure, capital returns and a difficult Chinese market at the same time.
Warning strikes reach Berlin-Marienfelde
Workers at Mercedes-Benz downed tools temporarily as part of nationwide warning strikes across the German metal and electrical industry. Reuters reported stoppages at the Berlin site, where employees joined a rally on the Mercedes-Benz factory grounds in Marienfelde. The walkouts followed the collapse of the second round of collective bargaining talks.
IG Metall is demanding 5% more pay from November for 3.7 million employees, alongside measures to protect jobs and production sites and profit-sharing arrangements in sectors that are performing well. Employers have countered with a one-off payment of 1% next July and a 1.3% wage increase from July 2028, with the one-off payment potentially waived at companies in crisis.
For Mercedes-Benz, the standoff adds another layer of uncertainty. The two sides remain far apart on both the size and the timing of payments, so the proposed increases should not be equated with additional personnel costs already agreed. According to IG Metall, roughly 38,000 employees took part in the warning strikes nationwide on the day, with actions set to continue through the week and a tally scheduled for Friday.
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Buyback presses ahead
Away from the picket lines, the automaker reported fresh purchases of its own stock. Mercedes-Benz bought back 904,601 shares in the past week, with the transactions executed by a commissioned credit institution. Since the program began on September 1, the company had repurchased a total of 7,391,990 shares as of Friday, a cumulative figure that already includes the latest weekly purchases.
The buyback demonstrates steady execution of the capital-return plan, but it says nothing about how the operating business is faring under its current burdens. For investors, capital policy and business prospects therefore remain separate items on the valuation checklist.
Deutsche Bank keeps its Buy — with reservations
Deutsche Bank Research reaffirmed its Buy rating on Mercedes-Benz, though analyst Tim Rokossa remains guarded after a meeting with finance chief Harald Wilhelm. His concerns center on China and on the company's earnings in 2027. The confirmed rating sits alongside a downbeat view of the business outlook, so the recommendation should not be read as an all-clear for operations.
The price target is above the current share price of €41.34, a gap that reflects the bank's positive valuation perspective. It is, of course, an analyst assessment rather than a promise on future price moves. The key is the split between the investment call and near-term pressures: the research house still considers the stock worth buying even as uncertainty over China and future earnings persists.
China is the proving ground
Mercedes-Benz plans to present its restructuring next year. CEO Ola Källenius said conditions are deteriorating more sharply than expected, having already described China as the central challenge in Wednesday's earnings call and pointed to a cyclical downturn and further burdens.
The numbers back up the caution. In the third quarter of 2026, China sales fell 31% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The company intends to source and build the upcoming electric E-Class largely locally in China, while declining to chase market share at any price — an approach that pairs a deeper local footprint with restraint in the contest for volume.
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By the end of 2027, Mercedes-Benz plans more than 40 new or revised models as part of its announced package of measures. Whether that offensive can offset the earnings drag remains an open question.
Profit warning sets the bar
Additional context comes from the profit warning issued just over a week ago. Mercedes-Benz expects group EBIT for the current year at the prior-year level, citing tougher competition in China, unfavorable exchange rates and high costs for the model ramp-up as burdens.
Attention now turns to execution of the announced measures and their effect on earning power. Deutsche Bank has kept its positive stance on the stock but has not drawn a line under the operating risks. Fourth-quarter 2026 results are due on February 18, 2027 — the next scheduled date on which business development and the analyst verdict can be weighed against each other. Until then, the Buy rating stands beside an unchanged cautious view of earnings. Neither the buyback nor the rating resolves the two uncertainties hanging over the stock.
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