Moderna's Flu Shot Now Has a Wall Street Backer — and a Cost Bill That Shrinks by $200 Million
Published on 11/07/2026 at 14:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Moderna closed its third quarter of 2026 with a profit, a raised sales outlook, and a new product approval in hand. Yet the detail that may matter most to shareholders sits further down the income statement: the company is spending far less on research than it was a year ago, and a private equity giant is now shouldering part of the development bill.
The quarter that flipped the sign
Moderna posted revenue of $1.3 billion for the three months, up 29% from a year earlier. Net income came in at $162 million on a GAAP basis, a sharp reversal from the $200 million loss recorded in the third quarter of 2025. Diluted earnings per share reached $0.38.
Higher international sales of COVID-19 vaccines and payments tied to government partnerships underpinned the quarter, according to Reuters. Those long-term government agreements also contributed to top-line growth. The stock responded with a 5.7% advance following the release.
Management now guides toward 15%–25% revenue growth for the full year 2026, a substantial upgrade from the maximum of 10% previously held out. The company also trimmed its outlook for operating expenses by roughly $0.2 billion.
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Research spending drops 27%
Research and development costs totaled $583 million in the quarter, down 27% year over year. Lower outlays for clinical trials, personnel and stock-based compensation all played a part. For the full year 2026, Moderna expects R&D spending of about $2.7 billion, against an earlier forecast of roughly $2.9 billion.
The savings cut both ways. A lighter cost base flatters the earnings picture today, but the mix of those savings matters: spending less of its own money is a different proposition from having a partner pick up the tab. The latter shifts economic burden into the future rather than eliminating it.
Blackstone buys into the flu franchise
That future obligation now has a name. Blackstone is backing development of Moderna's influenza vaccine and will receive claims on payments linked to its commercialization in return. The commitment runs to as much as $750 million for development.
The structure buys Moderna financial room to maneuver while it builds out the product. The price of that flexibility scales with the vaccine's commercial success, which means investors weighing today's cost relief must also weigh the partner's later cut.
mFLUSIVA, the newly approved flu shot, contributed only marginally to revenue in the quarter. Its US rollout is expected to stay limited through the current year, since the FDA green light arrived after contract planning had already closed. Near term, the COVID vaccine business still carries the revenue load.
A fifth approval, and a pipeline with bruises
The FDA's clearance of mFLUSIVA, announced yesterday, makes it the fifth product Moderna has brought to market worldwide, according to the company. The approval lends weight to the argument that Moderna is broadening beyond COVID-19 — though the economic value of that broadening depends on how widely the product is ultimately used.
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On Wednesday, Moderna said it would present initial Phase 1/2 data on mRNA-2808 at the annual meeting of the American Society of Hematology. The experimental candidate targets relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma, extending the research effort well past infectious disease.
The pipeline is not without setbacks. The Norovirus study failed to meet the criteria for early success at its interim analysis, and no additional cohort is planned for this winter.
What November 12 has to settle
An analyst day is scheduled for November 12, 2026, and it arrives with a clear test attached. The raised full-year guidance has to hold up in the actual operating business, and the newer products have to start generating meaningful revenue. Both threads — the earning power of the existing franchise and the progress outside COVID-19 — now run through the same question: whether medical milestones can be converted into a wider revenue base before the partner payments and development risks come due.
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