Musk's Falcon Phase-Out Plan Lands Amid SpaceX's Wildest Trading Stretch Yet
Published on 08/23/2026 at 19:03 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Elon Musk's decision to eventually retire the Falcon rocket line has landed at a delicate moment for SpaceX investors, who are juggling a record-setting launch cadence against a share price that remains roughly 40 percent below its June peak.
The billionaire founder said on X that once Starship proves capable of flying multiple times per week, the Falcon will lose its status as the workhorse of the fleet. That transition remains theoretical for now — SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has guided for 140 to 145 Falcon 9 flights in 2026, down from 165 missions the prior year. Starship itself is still in the testing phase, with Flight 14 completing a 60-second static fire of six Raptor engines, a key checkpoint ahead of its next orbital attempt.
The announcement cuts both ways for shareholders. It signals conviction in Starship as the company's future backbone — including the planned Artemis moon landing in 2028 — but it also underscores how much of SpaceX's long-term story now hinges on a single program that has yet to reach operational maturity.
A Stock Caught Between Records and Reality
The equity has been anything but calm. Friday brought a 2.1 percent gain, closing at 117.20 euros, yet the shares remain down 3.1 percent over a seven-day stretch. The monthly picture is brighter, with a 16 percent advance, but the 52-week high of 194.46 euros — touched on June 16 — still sits roughly 40 percent above the current price. The stock also trades about 5.4 percent below its 50-day moving average of 123.95 euros, a sign of cooling momentum after a recent rally. With annualized 30-day volatility running at 91 percent, the turbulence shows no sign of letting up.
Musk's own stake adds another layer of context. A regulatory filing dated June 30 shows he holds 48.4 percent of the company, a position Reuters valued at more than $900 billion based on current market prices.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Retail Investors Hit Pause
The recent price action has started to shift sentiment among smaller players. For the first time, retail investors turned net sellers of SpaceX stock on August 7, offloading a net $4.5 million, according to Vanda Research data cited by Reuters. The figure is modest in absolute terms, but it marks a notable reversal after a stretch of consistent buying from that cohort.
The clearest company-specific catalyst of the past two weeks came from Musk himself, who said the next catch of a Starship booster remains months away. The Wall Street Journal reported that the comment coincided with a pullback in the shares, as investors had apparently been pricing in faster progress on the program.
The Bull-Bear Chasm Widens
Valuation opinions on SpaceX have rarely been further apart. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest continues to add to its position, purchasing roughly 205,000 shares worth $27.5 million on August 21, funded by selling Palantir holdings worth $27.2 million. Wood sees fair value at $180 to $220 per share, implying a valuation between $2.5 trillion and $3.1 trillion.
On the other side stand skeptics like Jim Chanos, who argues the current $1.75 trillion valuation is unjustified. Valuation expert Aswath Damodaran pegs fair value far lower, at around $1.3 trillion. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu anchors the bull case on fundamentals, suggesting annual recurring revenue could climb from $31.3 billion to $100 billion.
Operations Keep Humming
None of the market drama has slowed the launch schedule. On Saturday, SpaceX completed its 100th orbital flight of 2026 from Vandenberg Space Force Base — a Falcon 9 mission carrying 29 Starlink satellites, with the booster touching down on the droneship "Of Course I Still Love You." Musk noted that more than 11,000 Starlink satellites are now in orbit.
Two days earlier, another Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral with 29 Starlink satellites after an initial attempt was scrubbed. Mid-August also saw SpaceX pull off two launches within 38.5 minutes of each other — for Globalstar and the US Space Force — a cadence that speaks to the company's operational muscle.
Investors may not have to wait long for the next headline event. Media reports suggest a Falcon Heavy mission carrying NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope could launch as soon as August 30, schedule permitting. A successful flight would further cement the reliability of the Falcon platform — even as the timeline for Starship's next visible milestone increasingly looks like the metric that matters most for the share price.
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