Nebius Stock: Customer Prepayments Cover Q3 Contract Capex as 2027 Revenue Target Lands at $12–13 Billion

Nebius has given investors a rare look at how it intends to pay for its build-out, disclosing that customer prepayments tied to contracts signed in the third quarter of 2026 covered more than 100% of the associated capital expenditure. Those agreements carried a combined volume of $12 billion. The company also set out a 2027 revenue target of $12–13 billion and said it aims to reach pre-tax break-even by the end of that year.

The financing detail matters because the spending curve is steepening fast. Nebius lifted its 2026 capex plan to roughly $27 billion, up from a prior range of $20–25 billion. For 2027 it penciled in $40–45 billion. Prepayments and asset-backed financing are expected to cover 75%–85% of that 2027 figure, according to the company.

Revenue Guidance Skews to the Low End

For the current year, management positioned revenue at the bottom of its $3.0–3.4 billion range. The culprit: delayed capacity handovers by third-party data center operators. In its shareholder letter, Nebius said some expected capacity had slipped into the first half of 2027, adding that the affected contracts remain in place. The shortfall pushed part of the anticipated top line into next year.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

The stock fell 17% following the outlook and the higher investment plans.

Third-quarter numbers, released alongside the guidance, showed the scale of the ramp already under way. Revenue climbed 571% year over year to $980.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $465.8 million, a swing from a $5.2 million loss in the same period a year earlier. The net loss from continuing operations narrowed to $37.5 million from $119.6 million.

Wall Street Trims Targets

Two analysts adjusted their models in response, though their ratings diverged. Piper Sandler cut its price target to $148 from $185 while keeping a Neutral stance. Baird lowered its target to $200 from $340 but maintained an Outperform rating — a split that leaves the bull case intact on paper even as the numbers come down.

The central tension for investors is timing rather than demand. Contracts are signed and, in the Q3 2026 cohort, effectively pre-funded. What has moved is when the servers can actually be switched on, and how much Nebius must lay out before that revenue arrives.

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