Nel ASA: A 224% Order Surge Meets a Deepening Loss and a Workforce Shrinking by a Quarter
Published on 08/01/2026 at 18:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic at Nel ASA has rarely looked more contradictory. In the second quarter, the Norwegian electrolyser maker's new orders jumped 224% year-on-year to 230 million Norwegian kroner, with the total backlog swelling to 1.2 billion kroner. Yet the same period produced a net loss of 189 million kroner — a widening from the 131 million kroner shortfall recorded a year earlier — and the company has responded by cutting its workforce from 430 to 313 employees.
The shares, meanwhile, closed Friday at EUR 0.1944, down 1.12% on the day. That leaves the stock 17.59% below its 50-day moving average of EUR 0.2359, a technical marker that underscores how far sentiment has drifted from the May peak. At the current price, Nel carries a market capitalisation of roughly EUR 362 million, and the equity has shed 12.27% over the past twelve months despite a modest 2.97% gain since the start of January.
The cost of settling with Iwatani
The quarterly figures were burdened by a one-off item: a settlement agreement with Iwatani Corporation of America cost Nel 70 million kroner, pushing EBITDA to minus 155 million kroner. Even excluding that charge, the operating picture remains strained. Revenue from customer contracts fell 12% year-on-year to 153 million kroner, while total revenue including other income reached 182 million kroner.
The underlying weakness reflects a broader industry malaise. Capital-intensive hydrogen infrastructure projects have become harder to finance, and the sector has seen a wave of high-profile retreats. US industrial gas group Air Products scrapped its blue hydrogen project in Louisiana, citing exploding costs and customers walking away, while Yara International also pulled out of a major Louisiana venture. Each cancellation sends a fresh tremor through the supply chain that electrolyser makers like Nel depend on.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
A technical picture caught between two extremes
The chart offers little comfort for bulls. The stock sits 46.81% below its 52-week high of EUR 0.3655, and the distance to key moving averages has widened rather than narrowed in recent weeks. Yet the 14-day relative strength index stands at 37.8, a zone that technicians often read as oversold — a condition that can sometimes trigger a short-term bounce, particularly if the price drifts toward the 52-week low of EUR 0.1731.
That low, established in February, now functions as a critical support zone. With the stock trading just 12.31% above it, the buffer is thin. A decisive break below that level could accelerate selling pressure. On the upside, a recovery toward the 200-day average of EUR 0.2142 would require both a stabilisation in the broader market and convincing evidence that the cost-cutting programme is delivering.
The PA-Series bet
Nel's fundamental case rests on its next-generation technology. The PA-Series, a pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform, is designed to cut installation costs for large projects by 40% to 60%, according to the company. With EU funding supporting the expansion of its manufacturing facility at Herøya in Norway, management is betting that lower capital costs will translate into a competitive edge in a market where project economics have become the defining constraint.
The recent order surge offers some evidence that the strategy is gaining traction — roughly 96% of the second-quarter intake came from the PEM electrolyser segment. But analysts remain cautious. The consensus rating leans toward "sell", and the average twelve-month price target of around EUR 0.183 sits close to the current share price. The scepticism centres on a single question: can Nel convert its swelling order book into actual revenue at sufficient manufacturing utilisation?
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A race between restructuring and industry headwinds
Nel holds a liquidity reserve of 1.3 billion kroner, providing a financial cushion for the ongoing transformation. But the clock is ticking. The company's annualised volatility of 29.45% reflects just how jittery the shareholder base has become, and the next set of official financial figures will be scrutinised for evidence that cash burn is actually declining.
The core tension is whether the internal restructuring can move quickly enough to outpace the sector-wide investment fatigue. If further major customers follow the Air Products and Yara example, the order backlog could face meaningful reductions. If the cost programme shows tangible results first, the stock might reclaim the 50-day average and begin repairing its technical damage. For now, the most likely scenario is consolidation above the February low, with the market waiting for hard evidence that the savings are real and the orders are converting.
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