Nel ASA Books $20 Million in Submarine Work as Revenue Slips to 2027
Published on 10/01/2026 at 03:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel Hydrogen US has widened its defence footprint, securing a further tranche of orders from Collins Aerospace worth roughly $7 million for PEM electrolyser stacks destined for submarine life-support and oxygen-generation systems. The fresh award builds on a $12 million agreement announced a day earlier for the US Navy, and together with smaller September bookings pushes the submarine-related intake from Collins Aerospace to about $20 million.
The stacks will serve undersea programmes across three navies — those of the United States, the United Kingdom and France — and will be manufactured at Nel's facility in Wallingford, Connecticut. Collins Aerospace had already placed a $6 million order with the Norwegian hydrogen group in March 2025, making the latest batch part of a deepening rather than a one-off relationship.
A booking now, a delivery much later
All $20 million of the new volume lands in Nel's order book during the third quarter of 2026. The cash, however, is a different story: deliveries are not scheduled until 2027 and 2028. That gap between recognition and receipt is the crux of the investment case, since it commits manufacturing capacity to demanding specifications well ahead of any revenue contribution.
The PEM segment has become the group's engine. In the second quarter of 2026, PEM systems accounted for about 96% of total order intake, which stood at NOK 230 million at the time. The defence awards now underpin utilisation at the Connecticut plant for several years, offering a degree of visibility stretching to 2028.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
What the market made of it
Shares changed hands at EUR 0.1940 on the day of the announcement, a gain of 1.0%, having closed the prior session at EUR 0.1938. The stock remains about 47% below its 52-week high of EUR 0.3655, touched in May. On the chart, the 52-week low of EUR 0.1731 marks the line that has so far held the base intact; a break below it would put the long wait for 2027 revenue back at the centre of the debate and sharpen pressure on management.
The double-edged nature of defence work
Naval programmes run by Washington, London and Paris come with strict quality standards and disciplined budgets, and they tend to be less exposed to the sudden spending freezes that can hit purely civilian large-scale projects. For Nel, proving its PEM technology in safety-critical applications such as underwater oxygen generation is a credential that could open the door to follow-on orders, lending the state-customer business a stabilising role.
The counterargument is one of scale and timing. A $20 million total spread across two delivery years is modest against the overall cost base of a plant builder. Projects with horizons in 2027 and 2028 carry costing risk: rising material prices or delays at the shipyards could squeeze margins long before the first stack ships. Adding to the uncertainty, the unresolved CEO succession has weighed on strategic direction for more than a month, leaving open the question of how efficiently the coming delivery obligations will be executed.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The October print as the next checkpoint
The decisive catalyst is the close of the third quarter of 2026, when the Collins Aerospace intake is formally recorded in the books. Only that disclosure will show how heavily submarine systems weigh within Nel's overall backlog — and whether the order momentum is enough to bridge the dry spell until deliveries begin.
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