Nel ASA Faces a Defining Stretch: Order Momentum Meets a Steep Analyst Reality Check
Published on 08/07/2026 at 16:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Norwegian hydrogen equipment maker Nel ASA finds itself at an awkward crossroads. Its share price has been drifting in a narrow band around 0.20 euros, with a modest Friday uptick doing little to mask a deeper problem: the stock remains roughly 45 percent below its 52-week peak, and the market's patience is wearing thin. JPMorgan's decision to slash its price target by nearly 38 percent — from 2.90 to 1.80 Norwegian kroner — while keeping a "Neutral" rating, underscores just how far sentiment has cooled on the company's path to profitability.
What makes this moment particularly uncomfortable is the disconnect between the order book and the income statement. Nel's second-quarter 2026 results, published on July 15, showed order intake surging 224 percent year-on-year to 230 million kroner — a figure that jumps to 171 percent on a sequential basis. Nearly all of that momentum came from the PEM electrolysis division, which accounted for 96 percent of new bookings and lifted the PEM backlog by 147 million kroner to 990 million kroner. The total order backlog now stands at 1.213 billion kroner, up 9 percent from the prior quarter and just 3 percent shy of the year-earlier level.
Yet the revenue picture tells a different story. Sales from customer contracts fell roughly 12 percent year-on-year to 153 million kroner, while EBITDA deteriorated to minus 155 million kroner — a deeper loss than the minus 100 million kroner recorded in the first quarter. A one-off settlement of 70 million kroner related to the agreement with Japanese partner Iwatani weighed on the bottom line, though even the adjusted figures came in weaker than the previous quarter. The net loss for the period reached 189 million kroner.
That gap between bookings and billings is precisely what has analysts on edge. Order intake, after all, converts to revenue only with a considerable lag, and a single strong quarter does not yet constitute a trend — particularly after several weak ones. The bull case rests on whether Nel can sustain this pace. The company points to two commercial wins for containerized PEM electrolyzers, each worth around 7 million US dollars, from France's Mesure Process and the US utility Douglas County Public Utility District. Management also highlights the market launch of the pressurized alkaline PA-Series platform, which CEO Håkon Volldal described as contributing to "encouraging commercial momentum" in the quarter.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
Adding to the complexity is a leadership vacuum. Volldal announced his departure in June to join a packaging company, triggering a six-month notice period during which he remains in post. The search for a successor is underway, but until a new chief executive is named, the company lacks a figurehead for its next strategic phase — a potential disadvantage in larger customer negotiations. Chairman Arvid Moss has sought to reassure investors that strategy, business model, and priorities remain unchanged despite the transition.
The bear case is equally compelling. Revenue is shrinking year-on-year while operating losses deepen — a pattern that cannot be explained away by the Iwatani settlement alone. A single strong order quarter does not resolve a structural profitability problem, and the share price reflects the skepticism: Nel trades nearly 10 percent below its 50-day moving average of 0.2210 euros and well under its 200-day average. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 43.5, suggesting the stock is not yet oversold despite recent weakness. On a year-to-date basis, however, the shares still show a gain of 5.30 percent.
One potential catalyst looms on the horizon. Brussels is expected to announce the winners of the HORIZON-JU-CLEANH2-2026 funding program in early August, with around 170 green hydrogen projects competing for support. Should Nel or its partner projects secure funding, the 1.213 billion kroner backlog could gain additional momentum. The company is also banking on the PA-Series platform, launched in May, to push turnkey costs for large-scale projects below 1,450 US dollars per kilowatt.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next major checkpoint comes on October 21, when Nel releases its third-quarter results. By then, investors will have a clearer picture on two fronts: whether the EU decision out of Brussels has translated into fresh orders, and how far the board has progressed in finding Volldal's successor. Both factors could prove at least as decisive for the company's long-term trajectory as the raw order numbers — and both will determine whether this quarter's order surge was a turning point or a temporary blip.
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