Nel ASA Faces a Reckoning: Order Momentum Meets a 63% Revenue Slide and a Leadership Handover
Published on 10/26/2026 at 14:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA is asking investors to hold two contradictory ideas at once. On one side sits a swelling order book and fresh contract wins; on the other, a top line that has fallen away sharply and losses that show no sign of closing. How that gap gets bridged — and who ends up running the company when it happens — now sits at the center of the equity story.
The numbers from the third quarter of 2026, released on October 15, lay out the tension plainly. Revenue from customer contracts came in at 112 million NOK, a 63 percent decline year on year. Total revenue including other income reached 138 million NOK. Meanwhile EBITDA landed at minus 93 million NOK and the net loss totaled 141 million NOK.
Order intake tells a different story. New orders climbed 339 percent in the quarter to 253 million NOK, and the backlog stood at 1,314 million NOK at period-end — up 34 percent from a year earlier. Those figures point to future capacity utilization, not to business already booked. New orders open up commercial prospects; they do not offset a revenue shortfall the moment they arrive.
Analyst Downgrade Follows the Print
The market's read on the quarter came quickly. On October 16, AlphaValue/Baader Europe cut its rating from "Buy" to "Add" and, according to media reports, trimmed its price target from 3.82 NOK to 2.38 NOK. The house pulled back both its recommendation and its target, though no specific rationale for the reassessment can be derived from the reports.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The downgrade fits a company whose order announcements and operating results are sending mixed signals. Bookings are a positive starting point, but they substitute for neither revenue realization nor an improvement in earnings. Whether Nel converts its existing pipeline into business — and curbs its losses while doing so — matters as much as whether it keeps winning new customers. The latest balance sheet offers no convincing proof of success on that front yet.
A Firm Order and a Non-Binding Pact
Two initiatives disclosed roughly two weeks ago illustrate how differently durable each piece of the outlook really is. The first is a firm order from an unnamed US technology customer covering several containerized PEM electrolyser units from the MC series, along with associated services. Valued at around 12 million USD and booked on October 13 through subsidiary Nel Hydrogen US, it carries a concrete commercial framework, with delivery slated for 2027.
The second is a different animal entirely. Nel's agreement with Rheinmetall is a non-binding letter of intent. The two companies intend to explore decentralized production of synthetic fuels from renewable hydrogen for Rheinmetall's Giga PtX project. For investors, the distinction is essential: examining a potential collaboration is not the same as a supply contract.
Timing matters too. The US order builds additional business potential but offers no immediate offset to a weak quarterly print — a reminder of the lag between booking an order and recognizing the revenue.
Interim Leadership Ahead of the Handover
Running alongside the operational story is a management transition. Morten Holum is slated to succeed HĂĄkon Volldal as chief executive, taking the role no later than May 1, 2027.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Until then, Nel has arranged a stopgap. CFO Kjell Christian Bjørnsen will take temporary charge of the company from November 1, 2026, while Torbjørn Berg, previously VP Finance, steps in as interim CFO.
Execution and succession therefore converge. For shareholders, the case does not rest on a stream of additional project announcements. What carries weight is delivery on the orders already in hand — and whether that translates back into higher revenue and narrower losses.
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