Nel ASA's 1.31 Billion NOK Backlog Is Only Half the Story
Published on 10/23/2026 at 19:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA's third-quarter 2026 report, released just over a week ago, presents investors with a split-screen picture. Orders are surging. Revenue is collapsing. The gap between the two is where the entire investment case now sits.
Order intake for the quarter climbed 339% year on year to NOK 253 million, and the backlog stood at NOK 1,314 million at period end. Revenue from customer contracts, by contrast, fell 63% to NOK 112 million over the same stretch. Those figures point to improving business prospects — not to a completed operational turnaround.
A backlog is a promise, not a profit
The distinction matters for anyone weighing the stock. Fresh orders signal future activity; they do not translate automatically into booked revenue or a stronger bottom line. What happens next depends on how quickly that backlog moves through the income statement in coming reporting periods.
The near-term numbers remain heavy. EBITDA for the third quarter came in at minus NOK 93 million, with a net loss of NOK 141 million. Cash at quarter end totalled NOK 1,078 million — enough room to manoeuvre, but no substitute for an improving core business.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
That is the bear case in a nutshell: if revenue stays weak even with a fuller order book, the recovery thesis loses its footing. New orders would then demonstrate demand without delivering sufficient economic effect. The risk for shareholders lies not only in orders that fail to materialise, but equally in a disappointing conversion of the orders already won.
Rheinmetall talks and a US electrolyser order
Two developments offer tangible reference points. On 13 October, Nel Hydrogen US booked an order from an unnamed US-based global technology group for containerised PEM electrolysers of the MC series, plus associated services. The contract is worth roughly USD 12 million, with delivery expected in 2027.
That timing makes the deal a prospect for a later delivery year rather than proof of a revenue turn already achieved. Its real test will be execution — getting the equipment out the door — not the mere receipt of the purchase order.
Separately, a letter of intent with Rheinmetall announced around two weeks ago opens another possible avenue. The two companies intend to explore cooperation on decentralised renewable synthetic fuel production, with Nel contributing electrolyser technology and Rheinmetall bringing its Giga-PtX concept and system integration expertise. No firm order has been reported, so this belongs among the possibilities rather than the secured book.
A new hand on the wheel from 1 November
Leadership adds a second track running parallel to order conversion. Håkon Volldal is set to step down from his operational duties at the end of October. Chief financial officer Kjell Christian Bjørnsen takes over as interim group chief executive from 1 November 2026, with Torbjørn Berg stepping in as interim finance chief. Morten Holum is slated to assume the top job no later than 1 May 2027.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The transition sets a timetable but supplies no economic evidence. A personnel decision cannot by itself resolve the contradiction between stronger demand and weak revenue.
For investors, the yardstick stays the same straight through the handover. As long as the backlog can increasingly be converted into sales, a recovery remains plausible. Should that conversion stay sluggish and the loss position fail to improve, the positive order trend will carry less weight as an investment argument. The 2027 delivery to the US technology customer will ultimately be judged on the same basis: what it actually contributes to the business.
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