Nel ASA's August Slide Deepens as Investors Weigh Legal Settlement, Leadership Void and a Backlog That Can't Convert Fast Enough
Published on 08/23/2026 at 19:10 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic of the hydrogen economy is proving unforgiving for Nel ASA. The Norwegian electrolyser specialist closed last week at EUR 0.1960, roughly 46 percent below its 52-week high, after a bruising August in which the shares shed about 18 percent between the 12th and the 20th. The damage was concentrated in the second half of the month, when a technical sell signal fired on 19 August and short- and long-term moving averages both flipped negative two days later. The automated scorecard now sits at 0.00, with ratings hovering between "Hold" and "Accumulate."
The Quarter That Won't Stop Haunting
The proximate cause of the drift is a set of second-quarter numbers released more than a month ago — and still weighing on sentiment. Revenue from customer contracts slid 12 percent to NOK 153 million, while the EBITDA loss ballooned from NOK 86 million to NOK 155 million. The bottom line showed a net loss of NOK 189 million, a figure that includes a NOK 70 million settlement payment to Iwatani Corporation of America, resolving a legal dispute that had been hanging over the company.
The balance sheet tells its own story. Cash reserves have dwindled from NOK 1.93 billion a year ago to NOK 1.33 billion as of 30 June. That leaves roughly NOK 1.3 billion in liquidity — enough to fund operations for a while, but a shrinking cushion that investors are watching closely.
The Backlog Paradox
Yet the quarter was not uniformly grim. Order intake surged 224 percent year-on-year to NOK 230 million, a figure that GBC Research seized upon when it issued a Buy recommendation on 18 August with a price target of EUR 0.48. The total order backlog stands at NOK 1.21 billion, though that remains slightly below the year-ago level.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The tension between those two data points — a booming intake pipeline and a contracting revenue base — sits at the heart of the market's skepticism. A healthy backlog is only as good as the speed with which it converts into billable revenue and margin. Until that conversion accelerates, the red ink and the shrinking cash pile will likely carry more weight with investors than the growth signals in new business.
Analysts Split, Leadership in Transition
Institutional opinion is sharply divided. JPMorgan cut its price target roughly two weeks ago from NOK 2.90 to NOK 1.80, maintaining a Neutral rating — a response to the quarter's mixed earnings quality. GBC's more optimistic stance, by contrast, argues that the order intake surge outweighs the weak operational print. The wide spread between those views underscores just how differently market participants are weighing the risk-reward equation.
Adding to the fundamental uncertainty is a change at the top. CEO Håkon Volldal is departing, though he will remain in place until year-end to oversee the handover. The succession question remains open, and leadership transitions at a moment when operational metrics need improvement rarely inspire confidence. Meanwhile, Nel continues to push ahead with the expansion of its electrolyser manufacturing facility at Herøya, targeting 500 megawatts of capacity by the end of 2026 — a project viewed as central to converting the order book into revenue more quickly.
A Stock in Chart No-Man's-Land
The technical picture offers little comfort. The shares trade 4.3 percent below their 50-day moving average, and the 46 percent gap to the 52-week high illustrates how far the valuation has retreated since spring. The stock has, however, stabilized above its 52-week low, suggesting the selling may be exhausting itself.
The next potential catalyst is the third-quarter report, scheduled for 21 October. Until then, the order intake remains the primary source of hope, while the operational loss and dwindling liquidity dominate the risk side of the ledger. Whether the Herøya expansion and the backlog can translate into tangible results before the leadership transition adds another layer of uncertainty is the question that will define the coming months.
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