Nel ASA's Cash Buffer Faces Its Sternest Test as One-Off Costs Bite
Published on 08/17/2026 at 03:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic at Nel ASA is becoming uncomfortable to ignore. The Norwegian hydrogen company booked 230 million kroner in new orders during the second quarter of 2026 — a figure that flatters the headline — yet the same period produced an operating loss of 155 million kroner, a revenue decline, and a one-off settlement that drained cash reserves at precisely the wrong moment.
That settlement, a 70 million kroner payment to Japanese partner Iwatani, has emerged as a defining detail of the quarter. It underscores how quickly the company's liquidity position — roughly 1.3 billion kroner at last count — can be eroded by events outside its core operations. The cash pile still looks comfortable on paper, but the gap between incoming orders and actual revenue recognition is widening, and investors are beginning to ask whether Nel can bridge that divide without tapping the capital markets.
Orders Climb While Revenue Slips
The second-quarter numbers tell a story of momentum and friction in equal measure. Revenue from customer contracts fell to 153 million kroner, down from the year-ago period, even as order intake surged to 230 million kroner — with the PEM segment accounting for 96 percent of that inflow. The order backlog now stands at 1.213 billion kroner, bolstered by the pressurized alkaline series launched in May.
That divergence between bookings and billings is the central tension animating the stock. Management has pointed to the capacity expansion at Herøya — targeting 500 megawatts by the end of 2026 — as the bridge between the two, but the new production lines will only vindicate that strategy once they begin generating revenue.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
JPMorgan Trims Its Ambitions
The market's skepticism has been quantified by JPMorgan, which cut its price target on Nel from 2.90 to 1.80 Norwegian kroner on August 5, while maintaining a Neutral rating. The bank's move, delivered shortly after the quarterly figures, reflects the combination of softer revenue and a deteriorated EBITDA picture. Even the robust order pipeline, which has animated much of the trading debate around the stock, was not enough to offset those concerns.
The stock itself has shown resilience in the face of the downgrade. Friday's close of 0.2025 euro represented a 1.7 percent gain on the week, with the shares up 5.4 percent over the past month and 7.3 percent year-to-date. Yet those gains look modest against the 52-week high of 0.3655 euro reached in May — the stock still trades roughly 45 percent below that level, a reminder that the recent recovery has barely scratched the surface of earlier losses. The company's market capitalization stands at approximately 366.85 million euros.
Leadership Transition Adds Another Variable
The financial picture is complicated by a change at the top. CEO HĂĄkon Volldal is departing for Elopak but will remain in his role until year-end, giving the board time to conduct an orderly succession search. That continuity is arguably a benefit given the operational challenges Nel faces, though it leaves a degree of strategic uncertainty hanging over the coming quarters.
The Next Checkpoint
Investors will get their next substantive read on the company when Nel reports third-quarter figures on October 21, 2026. The question hanging over that date is straightforward: will the order momentum from Q2 translate into realized revenue, or will further one-off charges — the Iwatani settlement being the template — continue to pressure the bottom line?
Before then, the market will also parse the Cavendish numbers due on August 27, which should offer additional color on the order backlog trajectory and cost structure. For now, the core debate remains whether Nel's cash buffer is sufficient to carry the company through its transition from order intake to revenue delivery — or whether the widening gap will eventually force a choice between dilution and delay.
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