Nel ASA's Order Book Is Swelling — But the Income Statement Tells a Different Story
Published on 08/12/2026 at 10:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Norwegian hydrogen specialist finds itself in an unusual spot: its order intake just exploded by 224 percent year-on-year to 230 million kroner in the second quarter, yet revenue from customer contracts shrank 12 percent to 153 million kroner over the same stretch. That disconnect — between a pipeline filling up and an income statement still heading the wrong way — is the central tension investors are now weighing.
The surge in orders was driven largely by the PEM business, which booked 221 million kroner in new contracts. But the story behind the numbers runs deeper. In May, Nel launched a new pressurized alkaline electrolyzer series, and secondary reports suggest that product rollout is at least partly responsible for the order momentum now showing up in the books. The combination of two technology lines — the refreshed alkaline platform and PEM electrolysis — gives Nel a broader offering to pitch at different types of customer projects.
That breadth matters, because the company is still burning cash at a significant clip. The net loss widened to 189 million kroner in Q2, up from 131 million kroner in the same period last year. EBITDA came in at minus 155 million kroner. In other words, Nel is investing heavily in capacity and market entry faster than it can recoup those outlays through current revenue — a familiar pattern for a company at this growth stage, but one that leaves little margin for error if the order flow doesn't convert.
The total order backlog has climbed to 1.213 billion kroner, which gives the company a substantial runway. The question is how quickly that backlog translates into recognized revenue — and at what margin. Historically, there's a meaningful lead time between order booking and revenue realization at Nel, so the Q2 intake won't show up in the top line for several quarters.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
Adding to the uncertainty is a leadership vacuum. CEO HĂĄkon Volldal is reportedly heading to Elopak, and until a successor is named, investors face the prospect of a strategy review, shifting priorities, or delayed investment decisions at precisely the moment the company needs execution discipline. A new CEO could just as easily double down on the current course as pivot away from it.
The market's response has been measured. Shares gained roughly 3 percent in Tradegate trading on Tuesday, and the stock has improved about 2.5 percent since the Q2 report and leadership announcement were released about a month ago. That cautious optimism suggests some investors are giving more weight to the order momentum than to the disappointing revenue picture — but the skepticism is far from gone.
JPMorgan, for one, cut its price target in early August from 2.90 to 1.80 Norwegian kroner while keeping a Neutral rating. The move signals that at least one major house isn't ready to translate the order-book growth into a higher valuation just yet. The stock currently sits about 17.85 percent above its 52-week low of 0.1731 euros, set in February, but remains 44.19 percent below its 52-week high of 0.3655 euros. The 50-day moving average stands at 0.2136 euros, and the company's market capitalization is roughly 361.56 million euros — a figure that reflects broader investor wariness toward the hydrogen sector as a whole.
For the bulls, the math is straightforward: a 224 percent jump in order intake is a signal even in a volatile segment like electrolyzers. If that trajectory holds, the backlog of over 1.2 billion kroner should gradually convert into revenue, stabilizing the currently declining top line. The new alkaline series could act as an additional lever if it gains broader customer acceptance than its predecessors.
For the bears, the risk is the gap between bookings and actual value creation. A 12 percent revenue decline alongside deeply negative EBITDA shows Nel remains far from profitability. If the revenue slide continues while the backlog converts too slowly, the stock could remain stuck in its current trading range without any real improvement in the fundamentals.
The next concrete test comes with the resolution of the CEO succession and the upcoming quarterly results. Those numbers will show whether the order surge is translating into actual revenue — and only then will it become clear whether the bull case or the bear case has the stronger claim.
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