Nel ASA's PEM Business Grew 65% While Alkaline Effectively Vanished
Published on 10/25/2026 at 17:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA's third-quarter 2026 report, released on 15 October, lays out a company pulling in two directions at once — and the analyst community has taken notice. AlphaValue/Baader Europe cut its rating on the hydrogen specialist from "Buy" to "Add" a day later, on 16 October, while slashing its price target to 2.38 NOK from 3.82 NOK, according to media reports.
The downgrade stops well short of a sell signal. "Add" remains a constructive stance, merely more guarded than the previous buy recommendation, and the steep trim to the target price captures that shift in tone.
A quarter split down the middle
Revenue from customer contracts fell 63% year on year to 112 million NOK. Beneath that headline number, the two technology lines moved in opposite directions. PEM revenue climbed 65% to 89 million NOK, while alkaline sales collapsed 91%.
That gap explains why the quarter defies a simple label. It was neither uniform weakness nor a broad-based recovery — the PEM advance simply wasn't large enough to offset the alkaline collapse.
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Profitability stayed under heavy pressure. EBITDA came in at minus 93 million NOK and the net loss at 141 million NOK. Against that, Nel closed the quarter with liquid funds of 1,078 million NOK — a cushion that offers breathing room but says nothing on its own about an operational turnaround. For that, the revenue trend would first have to stabilize.
Orders are running well ahead of revenue
New business told a far brighter story than the income statement. Group order intake jumped 339% to 253 million NOK, lifting the backlog to 1,314 million NOK. Nel reported stronger ordering activity in PEM alongside weaker activity in alkaline.
The clearest single building block arrived on 13 October, when Nel Hydrogen US disclosed an order from an unnamed US technology group for several containerized PEM electrolyser units plus associated services. The deal is worth roughly USD 12 million, with delivery expected in 2027.
That contract extends the commercial runway beyond the current year, though it is not revenue already booked — a distinction that matters when reading order announcements. A rising intake does not by itself translate into higher reported sales.
Rheinmetall talks add a further thread
Roughly two weeks before the quarterly figures, Nel agreed to explore cooperation with Rheinmetall on decentralized plants for producing synthetic fuels, combining Nel's electrolyser technology with Rheinmetall's Giga-PtX concept. The arrangement is a non-binding letter of intent: any pilot or next step depends on a feasibility review and mutual agreement, so it carries nothing like the weight of a confirmed equipment order.
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Taken together, the pieces form a clear hierarchy for investors. Liquidity is the financial buffer, PEM supplies the growth contribution, and new projects open optionality. The hard numbers, however, still set the tone — a sharp revenue decline and sizable losses dominate the picture so far.
What the split rating is really saying
The lower price target and the improved order book need not contradict each other. They point at different faces of the same company: recovering demand on one side, a still-weak earnings position on the other. What counts for an investment case is therefore not the headline order intake in isolation, but how quickly those orders convert into revenue and profit. The more cautious analyst stance applies a lower valuation yardstick without dismissing the positive order signals outright.
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