Nel ASA: Submarine Stack Orders Clash With a Lowered Price Target
Published on 10/10/2026 at 17:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA is presenting investors with two distinct storylines that refuse to align. On one side sits a firm order book tied to submarine programs; on the other, a brokerage that has just slashed its valuation of the equity. Keeping those threads apart is the central task for anyone holding or weighing the stock.
What Collins Aerospace Is Actually Buying
Roughly two weeks ago, Nel Hydrogen US — the American subsidiary of Nel ASA — booked an initial order from Collins Aerospace worth about USD 12 million. The contract covers PEM electrolyser stacks destined for life-support systems aboard US submarines.
More business followed. Collins placed additional orders valued at approximately USD 7 million, extending the relationship to naval programs in the United States, the United Kingdom and France. Tally those figures together with a handful of smaller contracts, and the Collins-related intake reaches roughly USD 20 million.
That is a named customer, a named application and a named end market — not a vague bet on the future of the hydrogen economy. It is worth stressing, however, that these are order values. They are neither reported quarterly revenue nor booked profit, and the gap between a signed contract and its eventual contribution to the bottom line is precisely where the investment case gets complicated.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
SB1 Markets Draws a Harder Line
On 29 September, SB1 Markets cut its price target on Nel ASA from NOK 0.50 to NOK 0.30 while reaffirming its sell rating. According to media reports, the analyst's rationale centred on the absence of a clear route to profitability.
The critique, then, is not aimed at Nel's ability to win contracts. It targets the company's economic trajectory. Additional orders count as a positive commercial signal, but they do not amount to proof of durable profitability — and that distinction sits at the heart of the disagreement.
The analyst also projected that Nel would require fresh capital in 2028. That is a forecast from the research house, not a financing measure announced by the company. For shareholders, the difference matters: an anticipated capital raise is not the same thing as a decided one.
Two Yardsticks, Two Different Questions
It would be a mistake to read the timing of the two announcements as cause and effect. A sell recommendation does not invalidate the commercial value of the orders, and a healthy order intake does not answer the profitability question. Collins is buying products; SB1 Markets is pricing the prospect of turning those products into sustainable earnings.
Investors should therefore treat the naval contracts as a concrete positive data point and the analyst's concerns about profitability and funding as a separate valuation matter. Neither cancels the other out.
What Comes Next
The company's report is scheduled for release at 07:00 CET, with a virtual presentation and Q&A session following at 08:00 CET. That gives shareholders both the numbers and a formal forum for walking through them — the point at which order intake and earnings performance can finally be measured against each other.
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