Netflix Wins a Bullish Debut From Jefferies as Rivals Split on the Streaming Giant's Path
Published on 10/15/2026 at 15:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni kicked off coverage of Netflix on Thursday with a "Buy" rating and an $85 price target, a call that implies upside of more than 20% from the stock's Nasdaq close of $70.57. The bullish initiation lands just days before the company reports third-quarter results, and it stands in sharp contrast to a pair of more guarded moves from rival research shops.
In European trading, the shares were steady at EUR 63.55, up 0.4% on the day. The muted session gain follows a softer stretch for the stock, which has shed 6.2% over the past month.
A Decade of Double-Digit Earnings Growth
At the heart of the Jefferies thesis is the view that Netflix can compound earnings per share at an average annual rate above 14% over the next ten years. Colantuoni points to additional monetization avenues, margin gains from scale, and a steady buyback program as the main engines behind that forecast. Between 2026 and 2029, the firm models revenue growth of 11% a year.
Pricing power underpins much of the argument. Netflix's standard US subscription costs roughly 60% less per hour viewed than competing offerings, and Jefferies expects that gap to narrow to 50% by 2029, helped along by annual price increases of about 7%. Revenue per member is projected to rise at an average of 6% annually over the next three years, while advertising revenue is seen climbing around 35% per year.
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Wall Street's Verdict Is Anything but Uniform
Not everyone shares that enthusiasm. KeyBanc kept its "Overweight" rating but trimmed its target to $85 from $92, citing currency headwinds and continued spending on new content that could hold back margin expansion for now. Huber Research went considerably further, cutting the stock straight from "Overweight" to "Underweight" on Tuesday and lowering its 12-month target to $70 from $85. The firm flagged mounting risks around user engagement and challenges in pushing through further price increases.
The split verdicts arrive as Netflix reshapes its cost base. The company confirmed on October 14 that it will cut roughly 1,000 jobs, or about 6% of its global workforce, with product, technology, legal, and human resources teams bearing the brunt. Reports of cuts in the region of 5% had already surfaced on October 9, meaning the final figure came in slightly above what had been rumored.
Co-CEOs Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos used the announcement to reassure investors that the business continues to grow steadily and that full-year guidance remains intact.
Spending Big Even as It Trims
Even while tightening its internal structures, Netflix is opening its wallet elsewhere. On Tuesday it locked up exclusive rights to all 104 matches of the 2030 FIFA World Cup in Spain and Andorra. The deal allows one match per matchday to be streamed free in Spain, and a free-to-air package covers every game involving the Spanish national team, both semifinals, and the final. The push into live sports is designed to shore up subscriber growth in core European markets over the long haul.
Investors will get a clearer read on the company's momentum on October 20, when Netflix publishes detailed third-quarter figures. Management has guided toward revenue of $12.86 billion, an 11.7% increase year over year, with operating income of $4.268 billion — a 33.2% operating margin. For full-year 2026, the board is targeting advertising revenue of roughly $3 billion.
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