Newmont's Buy Case Meets Its Toughest Test: A Cost Curve That Climbs Into 2027
Published on 11/07/2026 at 05:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Goldman Sachs is sticking with its "Buy" rating on Newmont, and the reasoning behind that call rests on two pillars: a quarterly profit that cleared Wall Street's bar and a hefty slug of free cash. The complication is timing. Just as the gold miner's numbers impress, management is flagging a steeper cost path through the end of the year and beyond.
The headline beat was decisive. Newmont posted adjusted earnings of $2.20 per share for the third quarter of 2026, comfortably ahead of the $1.94 consensus. Adjusted net income came in at $2.3 billion. Goldman Sachs counts the major gold producers among the more defensive names in the sector, and on that basis keeps Newmont on its buy list.
Cash generation is where the case gains real weight. Free cash flow for the quarter reached $1.9 billion, while operating cash flow hit $2.8 billion. By the end of September, the company held $8.8 billion in liquid funds—a war chest that underpins both shareholder returns and future projects. Since its last earnings call, Newmont has already returned money to investors through dividends and share buybacks.
A Macro Tailwind Worth Having
External conditions have been cooperating. Reuters reported on Thursday that gold prices rose following the US midterm elections, helped by a weaker dollar, lower Treasury yields and easing fears of oil-driven inflation. Newmont was among the gold miners whose shares advanced on the move. A 1.9% gain on Friday extended that friendly run.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Newmont Mining?
Yet a favorable market tide only carries real quality when it meets operational delivery—and that is precisely where the cost question bites.
The Cost Picture Cuts Both Ways
About two weeks ago, Newmont lowered its full-year guidance for all-in sustaining costs (AISC) per gold ounce to roughly $1,520, down from $1,680. In the quarter just reported, those costs came in at $1,454 an ounce. That improved outlook forms the positive backdrop to Goldman's endorsement.
The forward path, however, demands attention. For the fourth quarter of 2026, Newmont expects AISC of about $1,900 per ounce, and unit costs are projected to rise again in 2027. Whether the buy thesis holds therefore hinges on how well the company absorbs that heavier load—with the confirmed production plan providing support on the operational side, while revenue relative to climbing unit costs will decide the earnings trajectory.
Production, Red Chris and a CEO Sale
On output, Newmont reaffirmed attributable gold production of approximately 5.3 million ounces for 2026. In parallel, it is weighing the block-cave investment at Red Chris, with a fully funded investment decision targeted for early 2027, subject to review. Alongside shareholder distributions, that potential long-term commitment sits on the agenda—and the strong free cash flow speaks for the company's financial room to maneuver, provided it preserves that strength in the face of higher unit costs.
Newmont Mining at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
One other signal arrived Tuesday in a mandatory disclosure: President and CEO Natascha Viljoen reported an open-market sale of shares. The transaction was executed under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan dated February 23—a detail that belongs squarely alongside any reading of the sale.
For now, the investment case rests on the interplay between outside tailwind and internal execution. Newmont has supplied tangible evidence on profit and free cash flow. Whether that becomes a durable market story will be settled by delivery against the production plan—especially once the gold backdrop offers less support.
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