Nokia's Capacity Crunch Takes Centre Stage as SoftBank Trial and Q3 Report Set the Pace
Published on 10/19/2026 at 20:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nokia's ability to secure manufacturing capacity, not the size of its order book, has emerged as the pivotal question for investors ahead of the company's third-quarter interim report on 22 October. Bank of America reaffirmed its buy recommendation on the Finnish network equipment maker, attaching a 16 € price target and a caveat that has reframed the debate: a upgrade to full-year guidance is on the table only if Nokia can lock down additional production capacity.
The brokerage's note, published as a preview of the 22 October release covering both the third quarter and the first nine months of 2026, links buoyant demand for AI infrastructure to a supply-side bottleneck. Bank of America flags growing constraints in the supply chain even as it identifies additional switch orders and the collaboration with Nvidia on AI-driven radio access networks as engines of future growth. The distinction matters for shareholders — a fat order book signals demand but does not guarantee that revenue will be recognised at matching speed. What Nokia says about manufacturing and component availability will therefore carry as much weight as the headline order intake.
Order Expectations Point Lower Than the Prior Quarter
Bank of America projects AI-related orders exceeding 2 Mrd. €, split between at least 1.6 Mrd. € for optical networks and 400 Mio. € for switches. That would land below the level recorded in the previous quarter, when Nokia booked 2.8 Mrd. € in AI and cloud orders during the second quarter of 2026. Roughly half of that sum is expected to ship within twelve months, according to a preview from Inderes.
The buy case, in other words, does not rest on a fresh order record at every publication. Execution and the longer-term growth runway take precedence — a point the analysts make implicitly by tolerating a sequential decline in bookings.
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Revenue Growth Without a Matching Earnings Leap
Inderes forecasts third-quarter revenue of 5.019 Mrd. €, a gain of 6.8 % on the year-earlier period, with adjusted operating profit of 435 Mio. €. That is hardly the profile of an immediate earnings surge. Nokia itself expects the timing of software sales to hold results at roughly the prior quarter's level, so the market's attention will fall on management's commentary about the road ahead rather than the near-term profit line.
Network infrastructure is the growth engine in Inderes' model, with revenue seen climbing 14 %. Optical networks are pencilled in for a 20 % increase and IP networks for just under 20 %. AI and cloud demand should underpin that momentum, though the analysis house keeps a close eye on component availability and pricing — the two variables that determine how much of the demand converts into profitable business.
Long-Term Targets Under a Valuation Spotlight
Nokia has guided to adjusted operating profit of between 2.1 and 2.6 Mrd. € for 2026, a range that comfortably contains Inderes' 2.39 Mrd. € estimate. Expectations climb beyond the current year, however. Inderes chief analyst Antti Viljakainen described the company's long-term financial targets as low relative to the elevated share price, noting that investors are looking for positive commentary on the long-term outlook and possibly higher goals.
By 2028, Nokia is aiming for a comparable annual operating profit of 2.7 to 3.2 Mrd. €, alongside an operating margin of 13 to 17 % for network infrastructure. The quarterly report must therefore deliver more than evidence of rising demand; for Bank of America's optimistic stance to hold, visible progress on production capacity would give the prospect of a guidance raise a firmer footing.
A Field Trial in Japan and a Portfolio in Motion
Running alongside the earnings story, Nokia and SoftBank plan to put their AI-driven mobile network collaboration to the test under live commercial traffic conditions. The agreement, announced on Friday, schedules a field trial in Japan for 2027, with Nokia's anyRAN software running on SoftBank's AITRAS platform. It is a concrete next step in development — but no proof yet of broad commercial deployment. Neither the outcome of the trial nor any subsequent large-scale rollout can be inferred from the announcement, and the timeline keeps it a medium-term theme.
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Product work continues in parallel. On 12 October, Nokia unveiled a flexible PON line card supporting multiple transmission standards at every connection point, with general availability slated for 2027. Portfolio reshaping is also under way: on 13 October the company agreed to sell its enterprise campus edge business to AURELIUS. That unit serves close to 900 customers, according to Nokia. Completion is expected in the first half of 2027, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.
For investors, the distinctions are what count. The divestment is agreed; the network trial is planned; the interim report on 22 October will supply the next measurable reading on the business itself.
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