Nomura and Goldman Push Back on Chip Skepticism as SK Hynix Sheds 4.2%
Published on 10/20/2026 at 13:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two of Wall Street's most closely watched research houses chose the same day to defend the memory-chip trade — and the market ignored them. SK Hynix closed Tuesday's session at 1,223,000.00 KRW, down 4.2%, extending a seven-day slide that has now reached 16%.
The decline unfolded against a broad retreat from South Korean semiconductor names, with foreign and institutional investors leading the exit. The Kospi benchmark fell 2.8% in early trading, according to AP. Hovering over the selling: doubts about the payback on global AI infrastructure spending, a persistently high interest-rate environment, and unease about competition from China.
Nomura Sees a Supply Gap Stretching to 2028
Nomura's answer to the CXMT worry is a demand forecast. The Japanese bank expects worldwide memory demand to outstrip supply through at least 2028, underpinned by the breakneck build-out of AI infrastructure. Newly commissioned data-centre capacity is projected to climb from 22.3 gigawatts this year to 31.5 gigawatts in 2027. Combined revenue growth at AI developers OpenAI and Anthropic is pegged at 507% year on year for the third quarter of 2026.
The sector's balance sheet backs the thesis. Net liquidity across nine leading semiconductor groups stood at USD 282 billion in the second quarter of 2026, a figure Nomura calculates could reach USD 2 trillion by the end of 2028. The bank reiterated its buy rating on SK Hynix with a price target of 4.7 million Won. It did attach a caveat: should technology companies permanently cut or defer data-centre capex, those assumptions would need revisiting.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
Goldman: Markets Overstate the Chinese Threat
Goldman Sachs took aim at the bear case directly, arguing that investors are overestimating the technological progress of Chinese rivals. CXMT is indeed expanding capacity, but the US bank points to steep hurdles in certification and in achieving profitable mass production. Export restrictions on advanced EUV lithography equipment mean CXMT is likely to cover only 40% to 50% of Chinese domestic demand through 2028. The technology gap in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) remains wide as well, leaving incumbents such as SK Hynix with durable long-term prospects in the contest for key AI-server components.
A Regulatory Cloud Named Solidigm
Neither note addressed the overhang weighing most directly on the shares: a possible US listing of subsidiary Solidigm. Lee Chan-jin, head of South Korea's Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), said a day earlier that the regulator sees such a move running into rules protecting shareholders against dual listings of parent and subsidiary. The formal interpretation for foreign subsidiaries is still pending, and investors reportedly fear the step could dilute the parent's value.
A 2 Trillion Won Backstop for Suppliers
Even as the stock slid, SK Hynix moved to shore up its domestic base. Together with the South Korean government and four major banks, the company unveiled a credit guarantee programme of up to 2 trillion Won for semiconductor-industry suppliers. SK Hynix and the participating lenders are contributing 100 billion Won between them, with K-SURE providing the guarantees.
At Tuesday's close, the stock sat 59% below the 52-week high it set in June — a gap that leaves the analyst community and the market reading from very different scripts.
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