Novo Nordisk's Buyback Machine Keeps Humming While Wall Street Recalibrates the Risk
Published on 09/12/2026 at 09:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Morgan Stanley's decision to downgrade Novo Nordisk from Equal-weight to Underweight on Friday, with a price target of 250 Danish kroner, landed on a stock already nursing months of losses. The shares fell 2.6% to close at EUR 37.05, marking yet another low in a prolonged slide that has now reached 16% since the start of the year.
The bank's concern centres on a single molecule. Semaglutide — the active ingredient behind both Ozempic and Wegovy — accounted for roughly 75% of group revenue in 2026, and Morgan Stanley flags the approaching patent expirations in Europe and the US during the early-to-mid 2030s. Even by 2031, when exclusivity protections begin to erode, the bank's models still show semaglutide generating 59% of sales, a concentration risk the analysts consider inadequately hedged.
Oral Obesity Franchise: A Partial Answer at Best
Morgan Stanley projects the oral obesity segment built around the Wegovy tablet will reach USD 10 billion in revenue by 2031. That figure, while substantial, is judged insufficient to offset pricing pressure and intensifying competition. A survey of 200 US primary care physicians, alongside prescription data, points to market share losses in both diabetes and obesity. After a strong first half of 2026, growth of the Wegovy tablet has decelerated. Rival Eli Lilly has captured the majority of Medicare patients with Zepbound since launching its Bridge programme.
The termination of the Ziltivekimab trials announced the previous Wednesday compounds the pressure, though the analyst action remains the day's dominant story. Since the Phase 3 HERMES and ATHENA studies were halted — following July's ZEUS failure, when an independent monitoring committee judged the prospects too weak — the stock has shed 3.4%. The German launch of the Wegovy tablet roughly a week ago provided no counterweight; since then, the shares are down 7.6%.
Not every house shares the bearish view. HSBC raised its price target on Wednesday to 320 Danish kroner from 300, highlighting how sharply opinions diverge on the long-term pipeline. Morgan Stanley sees an unfavourable risk-reward balance; HSBC maintains moderate upside potential.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
The Buyback That Keeps Running
Behind the analyst noise, Novo Nordisk's share repurchase programme continues uninterrupted. As of 4 September, the company had bought back 32,034,179 B-shares since the start of February at an average price of 281.63 Danish kroner — a total volume of approximately DKK 9.02 billion. Novo Nordisk now holds 46,074,876 B-shares as treasury stock, roughly 1% of its share capital.
The tranche launched in May targets DKK 11.2 billion by early February 2027 and forms part of a broader DKK 15 billion programme spanning twelve months. For investors, the signal is clear: the board evidently views its own stock as attractively valued despite recent declines, indirectly supporting the share price while market sentiment remains weighed down by the Ziltivekimab setbacks and competitive pressure on Wegovy.
A Mixed News Flow Beneath the Surface
Not all recent developments have been negative. The STEP-Young study met its primary endpoint: 40.4% of treated children aged six to under twelve achieved a body mass index below the obesity threshold when taking semaglutide alongside lifestyle changes. China's NMPA has also accepted the marketing application for Wegovy.
Second-quarter figures were solid. Adjusted revenue grew 7% at constant currencies, adjusted operating profit rose 11% to DKK 33,389 million, net profit came in at DKK 21.0 billion, and free cash flow reached DKK 42.5 billion. Novo Nordisk subsequently nudged up its full-year guidance for revenue and operating profit growth.
Management cited strong demand for GLP-1 products and the success of the Wegovy tablet in the US, UK, and UAE as drivers. Working against these: lower realised prices, reduced Medicaid coverage for obesity treatments, and the loss of semaglutide patents in Canada and Brazil. For the full year 2026, the company has guided to adjusted revenue and operating profit growth of between 0% and minus 6% at constant exchange rates — a range offering scant room for positive surprises.
London as the Next Proving Ground
Attention now shifts to the capital markets day on 21 September in London, where management will present strategy, research pipeline, and operational development. Third-quarter results follow on 4 November. Both events should reveal whether Novo Nordisk can offset the cardiovascular pipeline setbacks through progress in its core obesity and diabetes franchise — or whether the scepticism voiced by Morgan Stanley will find further confirmation.
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