Novo Nordisk's Dual Data Drop: CagriSema Outperforms Tirzepatide as Oral Wegovy Holds Its Own
Published on 10/02/2026 at 17:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk used this year's European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) gathering in Milan to roll out a two-pronged data offensive — one arm showcasing its next-generation injectable, the other defending its newly launched oral franchise. Neither landed with much of a thud on the trading floor, but together they sketch the shape of the Danish drugmaker's post-semaglutide ambitions.
The headline-grabber was CagriSema, the company's investigational combination candidate. Fresh analyses presented Wednesday explored how the therapy alters brain responses to food cues, along with its effects on organ fat and bone health. Management was careful to label these findings exploratory, positioning them as building blocks for the clinical differentiation of its pipeline rather than as standalone proof points.
Those exploratory reads sit atop the Phase 3 foundation Novo Nordisk laid out on 21 September. In the REIMAGINE 5 trial, CagriSema delivered 12.4% weight loss in patients with type 2 diabetes, comfortably ahead of the 9.1% achieved by the tirzepatide comparator arm — a 3.3-point gap. Over in REDEFINE 9, overweight or obese adults on the drug recorded a 21% reduction versus placebo.
Oral Wegovy's Real-World Test
Running in parallel, Novo Nordisk unveiled the first real-world evidence on switching from GLP-1 injections to the oral formulation of Wegovy. The analysis, conducted with U.S. telehealth platform Ro, tracked 194 overweight or obese adults who had previously used injectables such as semaglutide or tirzepatide before moving to the daily Wegovy tablet.
At the three-month mark, participants had shed an average of 4.1% of body weight, or roughly 4.0 kilograms. About 41% of those tracked cut their starting weight by at least 5%, and the share of patients with a body mass index of 30 or above fell from 87.1% to 65.5% over the observation window.
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The OCTANE analysis comes with a caveat the company did not bury: it is an observational study with no control group and no randomization, so it cannot establish a causal link between the product switch and the weight loss. Only individuals who took the medication for three months without a gap exceeding 30 days were included. No data on side effects or the specific dosages of prior injections were released.
The oral version of Wegovy won FDA approval on 22 December 2025, with U.S. pharmacy shelves following on 5 January 2026. In the Phase 3 OASIS 4 trial, a daily 25-milligram maintenance dose produced 13.6% average weight loss over 64 weeks, against 2.2% for placebo. Patients must take the pill on an empty stomach and wait 30 minutes before eating.
Pricing Pressure and a Swedish Cut
Commercial realities are intruding on the clinical narrative. Novo Nordisk trimmed the price of Wegovy in Sweden by 20% effective 1 October, aiming to stem therapy discontinuations driven by cost. Media reports indicate the company has also filed a fresh reimbursement application there targeting specific high-risk patient groups.
Investor appetite for new revenue drivers is intensifying as patent expirations loom over older products, even as the GLP-1 market expands briskly and competition for share sharpens. The stock's reception to the 21 September capital markets day made that anxiety plain: according to Reuters, shares fell as much as 9% that day as investors questioned management's assumptions on pricing power and future acquisitions.
CFRA added to the cautious chorus, downgrading the company's U.S. depositary receipts from "Hold" to "Sell" on 22 September with a $38 price target. The research house cited an unfavorable risk-reward profile, pointing to peak GLP-1 earnings coming into view and mounting competitive pressure.
Chart Check
The shares are changing hands at EUR 33.31, down 24% since the start of the year and 39% below their 52-week high. In a separate reading, the stock was quoted at EUR 33.34, essentially flat with a gain of 0.05%.
What happens next hinges on Novo Nordisk's ability to convert pipeline progress into tangible approvals. Additional oral-treatment data is slated for presentation at ObesityWeek in November, giving the market its next checkpoint on whether the company's bets can outrun the skepticism.
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