Novo Nordisk's Legal Setback, Awiqli Approval and CagriSema Data All Defer to the 4 November Earnings Test
Published on 10/28/2026 at 05:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk will publish results for the first nine months of 2026 on 4 November, a date that now carries unusual weight. A regulatory green light, encouraging study readouts and a courtroom rebuff have all landed in quick succession — yet none of them substitutes for actual revenue or profit.
A Courtroom Rebuff, Not a Verdict
A US federal judge on Monday declined Novo's request for a preliminary injunction against Eli Lilly's comparative advertising for Zepbound and Mounjaro, according to Reuters. The judge found the evidence of harm insufficient, so the contested ads may continue while the litigation proceeds.
The ruling covers interim relief only. It does not decide the merits of Novo's suit, which argued the advertising was misleading, and it does not end the case. For now, the immediate competitive effect of the campaigns persists; whether Novo prevails in the main proceedings remains an open question.
Two Regulatory Events, Two Different Weights
On Friday, the FDA approved Awiqli to improve blood sugar control in children aged ten and older with type 2 diabetes, used alongside diet and exercise. Novo describes it as the first once-weekly long-acting basal insulin cleared for this patient group.
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CagriSema sits on a different footing entirely. The drug remains investigational, and the analyses released roughly a week ago are post-hoc, exploratory evaluations of the REDEFINE 1 trial. Novo reported an average weight loss of 25.0% in women after 68 weeks; the placebo group averaged 3.0%. The findings were presented at the annual meeting of the Menopause Society.
A marketing authorisation and an exploratory subgroup analysis are not the same kind of evidence, and neither answers the question of how the business is actually performing.
BMO Trims Its Target
Caution on the commercial side is visible in BMO Capital's move roughly two weeks ago. Analyst Evan Seigerman cut his price target on Novo Nordisk's ADRs to $40 from $47 while keeping a neutral rating. He cited a demanding comparison with the third quarter of 2025 and declining US market share as pressures on Ozempic sales. That assessment looked ahead to the third quarter of 2026 — an expectation, not a reported figure.
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What 4 November Can and Cannot Settle
The upcoming report offers the next hard data point for judging Novo's operating trajectory. Approval wins and promising study data strengthen the product portfolio's case, but they do not translate directly into sales or earnings. That distinction matters most for developments that occurred after the reporting period: they may shape future growth without explaining the results of the first nine months.
For investors, the picture is deliberately mixed — medical progress on one side, legal setbacks on the other. The 4 November release will supply the economic scorecard.
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