Novo Nordisk's Oral Wegovy Bet Takes Center Stage as Analysts Spar Over What Comes Next
Published on 10/08/2026 at 12:52 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A single question is shaping how the Street views Novo Nordisk right now: will patients actually embrace the oral version of Wegovy? Everything else — the buybacks, the pipeline deals, the regulatory calendar — orbits that one unresolved issue.
Fresh observational data have given the bulls something to work with. Adults who switched from injectable GLP-1 therapies to the Wegovy pill shed an average of 4.1% of their body weight over three months of continuous use, according to the OCTANE analysis presented on 30 September at the annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes. Novo Nordisk was careful to note that the study's observational design rules out any claim of causality.
Even so, the findings feed directly into the Danish group's broader strategy of moving beyond injectables toward more convenient alternatives, and the company is putting money behind that ambition. Roughly a week ago it locked up an exclusive licensing agreement with Hengrui Pharma for HRS-1596, an oral GLP-1/GIP agonist ready for Phase 1 testing and designed for potential once-weekly dosing. Novo Nordisk is paying USD 300 million upfront for rights outside mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, with the deal's total potential value reaching USD 2.6 billion plus future sales royalties. Completion is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions.
Two Banks, Two Very Different Targets
The analyst community is far from united on what all of this is worth. Deutsche Bank Research trimmed its price target to DKK 225 from DKK 245 on Wednesday, keeping a Sell rating, while JPMorgan stood pat on Monday with a Neutral call and a DKK 275 target. The gap between those two numbers tells you most of what you need to know about the current mood.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
JPMorgan's case rests on the idea that stronger-than-expected demand for the Wegovy tablet could deliver a meaningful lift to third-quarter results — and, if the momentum really surprises, possibly trigger an upgrade to full-year guidance. That kind of upward revision would go a long way toward easing the pressure that has built up on the shares. Deutsche Bank, by contrast, read the EASD conference data as a mildly negative development, and found that real-world data on Wegovy and Ozempic released about a week earlier — the stock has added 1.6% since — did little to change its mind.
Buybacks Keep a Floor Under the Stock
Management has been leaning on its own balance sheet while the debate plays out. Novo Nordisk disclosed on Monday that it repurchased 1,225,000 B shares for DKK 307.4 million between 28 September and 2 October, part of an DKK 11.2 billion tranche within a broader buyback program worth up to DKK 15 billion. The purchases signal the leadership's confidence in its own earnings power, and alongside arrangements such as the Hengrui deal — signed more than a month ago, with the stock down 27.9% since — they help underpin the longer-term pipeline story.
The shares changed hands at EUR 34.06 on Wednesday after a 2.8% gain, offering some near-term relief. Whether that marks the start of a recovery or simply a technical bounce is the question traders are wrestling with, and the wider picture remains one of pronounced skepticism. Year-to-date, the stock is down 24%, and it last traded at EUR 33.66 in the prior reading.
Denecimig Slips, but Guidance Holds
Not every development has been favorable. The FDA has extended its review period for Denecimig, Novo Nordisk's hemophilia A candidate, after requesting corrections at a manufacturing facility. The agency raised no concerns about clinical safety or efficacy data, and the company has reaffirmed that the delay leaves its 2026 financial outlook untouched. Novo Nordisk still aims for a US launch in the first half of 2027, though a revised decision date has yet to be set.
Technically, the 52-week low of EUR 30.25 remains the line in the sand. As long as support there holds, a stabilization scenario stays alive; should confidence in the revenue trajectory erode before the quarterly numbers land, a fresh test of that level becomes a real possibility. That narrows the playing field for investors to a single marker.
The next hard catalyst arrives on 4 November 2026, when Novo Nordisk reports results for the first three quarters. That release will settle the argument between JPMorgan's optimistic scenario and Deutsche Bank's cautious stance. Until those figures are on the table, the market's posture is one of tactical restraint.
Ad
Novo Nordisk Stock: New Analysis - 8 October
Fresh Novo Nordisk information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
