Novo Nordisk's September Reckoning: A Cardiology Setback, a Paediatric Advance, and the Weight of Wegovy's Oral Future
Published on 09/09/2026 at 12:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The Danish pharmaceutical heavyweight enters its capital markets day on 21 September carrying an unusually heavy load. Novo Nordisk's shares, trading at €38.76, sit roughly 29% below their 52-week peak of €54.86 — a gap that reflects not one but several intersecting pressures that have accumulated over recent weeks.
The most immediate blow landed when the company pulled the plug on two additional Phase 3 trials examining Ziltivekimab in heart failure patients. An independent data monitoring committee concluded there was only a slim chance the studies would diverge from the earlier cardiovascular trial that had already failed. That decision leaves just a single study running — one focused on post-heart-attack patients — with results not expected until the first half of 2027.
Yet for many investors, the cardiology setback is not the primary source of anxiety. The more consequential battle is playing out in US prescription data, where Novo Nordisk continues to lose ground to Eli Lilly. Citi, which has maintained a sell rating with a price target of DKK 265, has been tracking weekly GLP-1 prescription trends through an IQVIA-based monitor. The latest readings, published on 2 September, reinforce the view that the US market is slipping further from Novo Nordisk's grasp.
The Oral Wegovy Question
The company's counter-move is already underway. The oral formulation of Wegovy launched in Germany last Friday — the first EU market to receive the tablet — though the share price has shed roughly 3.4% since, suggesting the market had largely priced in the rollout. Additional European launches are slated for the second half of 2026, and China has initiated its regulatory review of the oral version, though no approval timeline has been disclosed.
The strategic logic is clear: if oral Wegovy can capture patients who prefer tablets over injections, Novo Nordisk may offset some of the erosion in its US injectable franchise. The company has also agreed to price Ozempic and Wegovy at $350 per month through the TrumpRx channel in the US — a move that could paradoxically boost volumes enough to grow revenue despite thinner margins, provided the anticipated demand materialises.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
A Paediatric Bright Spot
Amid the pipeline setbacks, one clinical result has offered genuine encouragement. The STEP-Young study, examining semaglutide in children aged six to under twelve, met its primary endpoint on BMI reduction. After 68 weeks of full treatment adherence, 40.4% of participants no longer met the criteria for obesity — data that opens a largely untapped market segment in paediatric obesity care.
The company has also completed data collection for a study involving cagrilintide, a candidate that could eventually broaden the obesity portfolio beyond semaglutide-based products.
Weighing the Bull and Bear Cases
For optimists, the capital markets day represents an opportunity for management to reset the narrative. Clear guidance on Wegovy's international rollout schedule and a convincing prioritisation of the remaining pipeline could restore confidence. The share buyback programme — which had repurchased just over 32 million B-shares for approximately DKK 9 billion as of 4 September — provides a degree of support beneath the share price.
The bear case, however, is built on velocity. If the IQVIA prescription data continues to deteriorate in the US, positive pipeline headlines may do little to move the needle. The Ziltivekimab discontinuation compounds the problem by removing a potential growth driver outside the diabetes and obesity core, deepening the company's reliance on semaglutide-based products. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly's recent FDA approval for Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk in high-risk type 2 diabetes patients adds a new competitive dimension that Novo Nordisk has yet to counter.
The technical picture does little to resolve the debate. The stock's RSI sits at 41.4, its annualised volatility at 40%, and it trades roughly 6.5% below its 50-day average — a configuration that suggests continued uncertainty rather than a stabilising base. (The secondary reading of 42.5 for RSI and 6.2% below the 50-day average reflects slightly different calculation windows.)
What Happens Next
The near-term trajectory hinges on whether the European Wegovy tablet expansion proceeds on schedule and whether the paediatric data translates into regulatory approvals. If those elements align, a recovery path remains plausible even from a level 29% below the January high.
If, however, the US prescription trend continues its downward drift without new markets compensating for the shortfall, the pressure on the shares is likely to persist. The capital markets day on 21 September offers management a platform to articulate its post-Ziltivekimab strategy — and to convince investors that the oral Wegovy story can outpace the competitive headwinds from Eli Lilly before the US revenue base erodes further. Until then, the market's attention will remain fixed on prescription data and the pace of the tablet's international expansion.
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