Novo Nordisk's Tale of Two Trials: A Paediatric Breakthrough Collides With a Cardiology Retreat
Published on 09/08/2026 at 07:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk delivered a sharply split message to investors on Monday, unveiling encouraging data in childhood obesity while simultaneously pulling the plug on two more late-stage studies in its embattled cardiovascular programme.
The Copenhagen-based company terminated the HERMES and ATHENA Phase 3 trials of Ziltivekimab, an interleukin-6 inhibitor being developed for heart failure, after a futility analysis concluded the chances of a meaningful result had dwindled too far. The decision marks the second setback for the asset in quick succession, following the failure of the ZEUS study back in July.
The contrast could hardly be starker. On the same day the company shelved those cardiology ambitions, it reported that its blockbuster obesity drug semaglutide — the active ingredient behind Wegovy — had hit its primary endpoint in a study of children aged six to under twelve living with obesity, more than 85 percent of whom had severe forms of the condition.
A First in Paediatric Obesity
The STEP-Young trial represents something of a landmark: no comparable study has previously been conducted in this age bracket, and Eli Lilly has yet to produce equivalent data of its own. After 68 weeks, 40.4 percent of children receiving semaglutide in combination with diet and exercise no longer met the definition of obesity, against zero percent in the placebo arm. The safety profile aligned with what has already been observed for the drug in older populations.
For a company whose growth narrative rests so heavily on the expanding reach of its weight-management therapies, the readout offers strategic validation — even if the path from clinical data to a regulatory label extension for younger children remains a lengthy one. Paediatric approval processes are notoriously slow, meaning the commercial payoff, if it arrives at all, will likely take years to materialise.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
The Cost of a Fading Pipeline
Ziltivekimab's origins add a layer of frustration to the cardiology retreat. The drug came to Novo Nordisk through the $725 million acquisition of Corvidia in 2020, a deal struck with the aim of building a second pillar beyond diabetes and obesity. Two failed studies in quick succession are difficult to brush aside, and the programme now looks substantially diminished. Only the ARTEMIS trial, examining the drug in patients following a heart attack, remains active — with results not expected until the first half of 2027.
Deutsche Bank had already downgraded the stock to "Sell" in late August, and this latest development seems unlikely to soften that stance. That said, the broader industry context offers some perspective: Novartis simultaneously disclosed that its cardiovascular candidate Pelacarsen had missed its primary endpoint in an advanced study. The difficulty of bringing new heart drugs to market, it appears, is not a problem unique to Novo Nordisk.
Reading the Market's Pulse
The share price response to Monday's mixed news was muted. The stock closed at EUR 39.83 in German trading, down 0.7 percent, leaving it roughly 27 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 54.86 reached in January. Year to date, the shares are off 9.5 percent.
Technical indicators paint a picture of a market still weighing conflicting signals. The stock sits below its 50-day moving average of EUR 41.60, suggesting near-term weakness, yet the relative strength index of 46.8 points to neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Investors, it seems, have absorbed the news without panic — perhaps because Ziltivekimab never formed the core of the investment case in the first place.
That core remains semaglutid, and here the paediatric data provides genuine substance. But questions are emerging about whether even the flagship obesity franchise can sustain its breakneck expansion. Citi has pointed to Brazilian import data for polypeptide hormone-based medications — a proxy for weight-loss injection demand — which fell 22 percent in August compared with July. It is a single regional data point, yet it hints at demand elasticity and the creeping threat of generic and biosimilar competition.
A Stock in Transition
The picture that emerges is of a company caught between two narratives: scientifically formidable, with a platform that keeps delivering, but commercially facing its first real headwinds. The paediatric win bolsters the long-term case for semaglutide, while the failed heart studies underscore how difficult diversification beyond obesity and diabetes has proven to be.
For investors, the pivotal question is whether the softening demand signals spreading across markets represent a genuine inflection or a temporary blip. The answer will determine whether the current discount in the share price is justified — or itself an overreaction.
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