Novo Nordisk Wins Chinese MASH Nod and Paediatric Data as Morgan Stanley Sours the Story
Published on 09/13/2026 at 09:00 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk cleared a notable regulatory hurdle on Thursday when Chinese authorities approved Wegovy for the treatment of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), making it the first GLP-1 receptor agonist greenlit for the liver condition in that market. For the Danish drugmaker, the decision opens a fresh indication for its weight-loss franchise in one of the world's largest healthcare markets.
The approval caps a run of encouraging clinical news. On the preceding Monday, the company reported that a late-stage trial of semaglutide in children aged six to under twelve had met its primary endpoint. After 68 weeks, and assuming full adherence, 40.4% of the children were no longer classified as obese — versus none in the placebo arm. No safety concerns regarding growth or pubertal development emerged, according to the company. The result could widen the addressable population for Novo's flagship product over the longer term.
A Tablet Launch in Germany, a Setback in Cardiology
Alongside those regulatory and clinical developments, Novo Nordisk introduced the tablet form of Wegovy in Germany in early September, a move confirmed by a company spokesperson. The oral version is intended to offer patients an alternative to injections and to ease access to therapy — a strategically important step in one of Europe's highest-revenue markets for obesity medicines.
The past week also brought a reverse. Two further trials of ziltivekimab in the cardiovascular field were halted after an independent monitoring committee judged it unlikely that they would deliver a result differing from an earlier study that had already failed. A trial in patients who had suffered a heart attack continues, with data expected in the first half of 2027. Since that announcement last Wednesday, the shares have shed roughly 3.4%.
Market Sentiment Stays Defensive
Despite the pipeline progress, the stock remains on the back foot. It closed Friday at EUR 37.05, down 2.6% on the day, extending its decline over the past seven trading sessions to 7.6%. The trigger was less the China approval than a sceptical re-rating from Morgan Stanley published on Friday: the analysts cut their rating to Underweight, citing muted medium-term growth prospects and the risk of expiring patents on semaglutide.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
That leaves the share price far below earlier levels. Year to date it is down 16%, and over twelve months it has lost 20%. Measured against its 52-week high of EUR 54.86, set in January, the stock is 32% lower. An RSI reading of 34 signals oversold conditions, underlining investor nervousness. The gap to the 200-day moving average of 7.6% shows the downtrend persisting on a medium-term view as well.
A Capital Markets Day Looms in London
The timing could hardly be more delicate. According to a Bloomberg report, the Danish insulin and diabetes group has summoned staff to an internal town hall on 15 September to discuss the company's "next chapter." Just six days later, on 21 September, the official capital markets day follows in London — the format at which management typically presents its medium-term strategy to investors.
Morgan Stanley's downgrade landed on Thursday. The bank based its move on a subdued medium-term growth outlook and the looming patent cliff for semaglutide, which accounted for 75% of group revenue in 2026 according to the analysts. Morgan Stanley expects semaglutide to still contribute 59% of revenue by 2031, when patents in Europe and the US progressively expire — a concentration risk the bank considers too high. A proprietary survey of 200 US primary care physicians also pointed to eroding market share against Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro, as well as the rival product Retatrutide expected from 2027.
Not every analyst shares that degree of scepticism. HSBC had already raised its price target to DKK 320 on Wednesday. The divergence between the two houses illustrates how differently the group's long-term growth prospects are currently being assessed — and how much the forthcoming capital markets day could shape the stock's direction.
Buybacks Continue Despite the Selloff
On fundamentals, Novo Nordisk has delivered constructive news of late. On 7 September it reported the successful completion of the Phase 3 STEP Young trial: among children aged six to under twelve, 40.4% were no longer classified as obese after 68 weeks of weekly semaglutide, against zero in the placebo group.
Meanwhile, the company is pressing ahead with its share buyback programme. As of 4 September, Novo Nordisk had repurchased around 32 million B shares since February at an average price of DKK 281.63, equivalent to a transaction volume of just over DKK 9 billion. A buyback volume of up to DKK 11.2 billion is planned through February 2027 — a signal that management regards its own stock as undervalued despite the price slump.
For investors, the picture remains contradictory: solid clinical progress and ongoing capital returns stand against structural doubts about the long-term growth story. The capital markets day on 21 September should reveal whether management can convincingly address concerns about the era after semaglutide.
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