Nvidia's Memory Crunch Meets a Power Grid Test as Buyback Backstop Grows
Published on 10/07/2026 at 11:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nvidia is discovering that pricing power cuts both ways. Facing stubborn cost inflation across its supply chain, the chipmaker is passing the bill to customers — while simultaneously leaning on a swelling buyback program and a fresh vote of confidence from Wall Street to keep its equity within a hair of record territory.
The company unveiled an OEM configuration of its DGX Spark with 64 gigabytes of memory, set to reach customers from October 23 at a starting price of $4,999. Distribution will run exclusively through partners. At the same time, the 128-gigabyte Founder's Edition climbed to $6,950, a move Nvidia attributed to memory supply bottlenecks and higher production costs. The adjustments underscore how much latitude the company still commands in a market defined by component scarcity.
SpaceX Financing Signals Demand — With a Caveat
Industrial appetite shows no sign of cooling. According to media reports, SpaceX is pursuing a $40 billion financing package earmarked for the purchase of Nvidia chips, structured as roughly $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in bonds. Apollo is said to be leading the transaction, with completion expected in 2027.
That is a demand signal, not a booked order. Reuters noted it could not immediately verify the Financial Times report. Even so, the sheer scale of the plan illustrates the size of the data-center projects taking shape — and the willingness of major customers to lock in funding years ahead of delivery.
Morgan Stanley: Power Constraints Are a Problem — Just Not for Nvidia
While memory shortages dominate the cost picture, another bottleneck is moving to center stage: the strain on U.S. electricity grids. Morgan Stanley weighed in this week, arguing that Nvidia is comparatively well insulated from the power-supply constraints hampering data-center operators, and that its 2027 forecasts are not at risk from those limits. The bank did flag potential delays among secondary chip suppliers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
The assessment builds on an earlier call: on October 2, Morgan Stanley reiterated the stock as its preferred semiconductor pick, maintaining an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. The analysts pointed to Nvidia's strong positioning against shortages of space, electricity and data-center capacity.
Megawatts, Not Orders, Set the Pace
The question that matters for the share price is no longer order intake. It is how quickly data-center operators can bring new grid connections online. Without reliable feeders and substations, even the most advanced accelerator cards sit idle. If grid buildout slips, customers could push back delivery schedules, delaying revenue recognition for Nvidia. Valuation models that assumed seamless scaling of global compute now hinge on something far more physical: available megawatts.
The risk is concrete. Lead times for specialty transformers in many U.S. regions run into multiple years, and high-voltage transmission approvals often drag. Hardware that cannot be plugged in either ships late or ties up capital at the buyer. Add in the financing risk of customers carrying heavy debt loads, and the picture gets more fragile — a high leverage ratio makes buyers vulnerable to delays, and missed revenue could trigger cancellations or reductions in follow-on orders.
Buyback Backstop and the Bull Case
Against those headwinds stands a formidable capital-allocation engine. Nvidia authorized a $150 billion increase to its existing share repurchase program in late September, bringing the remaining buyback volume to $235 billion, to be deployed through fiscal 2028. A program of that size underpins the stock and counters dilution, while demonstrating the company's ability to return substantial free cash to shareholders even as it funds enormous research spending.
In the bullish scenario, multi-billion-dollar hardware commitments continue unabated. The readiness of large customers to take on significant debt for Nvidia processors reinforces AI infrastructure as a strategic priority — and keeps the order book secure for years, provided energy bottlenecks ease gradually.
Where the Stock Stands
During today's session the shares changed hands at EUR 214.45, a modest gain of 0.9% on the day, leaving them just shy of the 52-week high of EUR 216.10. In pre-market trading the stock was quoted at EUR 213.70, a similarly narrow gap to that peak. The market is rewarding Nvidia's ability to push higher costs through to customers.
The next concrete catalysts are the progress of SpaceX's $40 billion financing and the steady execution of the remaining $235 billion buyback through fiscal 2028. If infrastructure operators stumble and grid constraints force entire project phases to slip, investors should brace for a meaningful correction — at these valuation multiples, delays in revenue recognition are not easily forgiven.
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