Nvidia's Vera Rubin Rollout and AWS Expansion Test Whether the Market's Caution Is Misplaced
Published on 09/10/2026 at 02:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The disconnect between Nvidia's operational momentum and its stock price has rarely been starker. While the chipmaker's chief executive declared artificial general intelligence achieved — a statement that landed with a shrug and a two percent share decline — the company's order books, production lines, and forward guidance tell a story of accelerating demand that the market seems reluctant to fully price in.
That tension comes into focus this week as Nvidia executives take the stage at Goldman Sachs' Communacopia + Technology conference. The appearance follows a dividend record date on Thursday, with shareholders of record receiving the quarterly payout of $0.25 per share on October 1. More significantly, the company is expected to provide updates on the rollout of its Vera Rubin data-center platform, which management says is already in full production with racks deployed at CoreWeave, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and Nebius.
The Numbers Behind the Skepticism
The financial fundamentals are difficult to argue with. In the second fiscal quarter, reported on August 26, Nvidia generated revenue of $96.2 billion, a 106 percent year-over-year increase. Gross margin came in at 75.0 percent on both GAAP and non-GAAP bases. Data-center revenue alone contributed $89 billion to the total.
For the current quarter, management has guided to $108 billion in revenue, a figure that explicitly excludes any contribution from Chinese data-center chips. Looking further ahead, the company has signaled roughly 70 percent growth for the fiscal year beginning in early 2027 — a projection that towers over the analyst consensus of approximately 45 percent.
That gap between corporate guidance and Wall Street expectations cuts both ways. Management teams that project more optimism than the market typically aren't flashing warning signs. And the supply-demand dynamics appear to support the bullish case: CoreWeave chief executive Michael Intrator noted at the Goldman conference that every available GPU could be sold to multiple customers simultaneously. Broadcom and Micron have similarly attributed their growth forecasts to supply constraints rather than softening order activity.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
AWS Doubles Down on Blackwell and Rubin
Adding to the momentum is a significant expansion of Amazon Web Services' commitment to Nvidia hardware. AWS has increased its existing pledge of roughly one million graphics processors by an additional two million units across the Blackwell Ultra, Rubin, and Rubin Ultra lines for 2027 and 2028. Nvidia attributes the upsizing to original order volumes that exceeded expectations.
The expansion suggests that the Vera Rubin platform — slated to contribute roughly one-fifth of data-center revenue in the current fiscal third quarter — is gaining traction with the hyperscalers that anchor Nvidia's customer base. That concentration cuts both ways: three direct customers account for 16, 15, and 13 percent of revenue respectively, a dependency that investors would be wise to monitor.
A Share Price That Tells a Different Story
The equity market has been less enthusiastic. Shares closed Wednesday at €192.40, down 0.9 percent on the day and 2.1 percent on the week. That leaves the stock about 5.0 percent below its 52-week high of €202.50, set in mid-May. The pullback looks less alarming in context: the shares remain 27 percent higher over twelve months and up 20 percent year-to-date, trading comfortably above the 200-day moving average of €169.97.
Cantor Fitzgerald argues the stock is actually the cheapest among compute names based on 2028 earnings estimates, carrying a price target of $350. The recent consolidation, in this view, reflects profit-taking after a rally rather than a fundamental reassessment.
Capital Returns and Strategic Ambitions
The company continues returning capital to shareholders alongside its expansion efforts. During the second fiscal quarter, Nvidia repurchased 94 million shares for $19.7 billion; in the first half of the fiscal year, buybacks totaled 203 million shares for $39.8 billion. As of the end of July, $99.3 billion remained under the repurchase authorization, following a board-approved $80 billion expansion in May with no expiration date.
Beyond buybacks, Nvidia is extending its reach across the AI value chain. The planned $12.93 billion acquisition of Hugging Face would give the company direct access to the platform where millions of developers exchange models — over 18 million users and more than three million models. Management has also established a $500 billion credit program with partners including Blackstone, BlackRock, and Goldman Sachs, with Nvidia itself providing up to $125 billion in reinsurance. The framing of chips as an "investable asset" reflects how deeply the company now shapes the financing architecture of AI infrastructure.
Tighter customer vetting in Asia, which has reduced the number of authorized buyers by more than half, underscores the geopolitical constraints Nvidia must navigate. Export rules and customer concentration remain the two risks most likely to disrupt the narrative.
Thursday's appearance at Goldman Sachs will test whether management can address those concerns — or simply continue delivering numbers that speak for themselves.
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