OHB's 2027 Blueprint: Nine Analysts, a 34% Sales Bet, and a Cash-Flow Question Mark
Published on 11/15/2026 at 17:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
OHB's third-quarter report card came back mixed, and the market wasted little time reacting. The stock fell 8.9% on Friday, with dpa-AFX attributing the slide to the disappointing quarterly figures. Yet the analyst community's longer-range forecasts barely budged — a split that says as much about where the debate now sits as any single number.
At the centre of it is the gap between what OHB has booked and what it has so far converted into profit and cash. Nine analysts surveyed in media reports see revenue of EUR 1.78 billion for 2027, a 34% advance on the trailing twelve months. Earnings per share are pencilled in at EUR 4.96 on average, which would mark a 125% jump year on year. Before the quarterly release, those consensus figures stood at EUR 1.79 billion in sales and EUR 5.01 per share — trims small enough to suggest the weak quarter has not, in the consensus view, broken the growth trajectory.
The Quarter That Missed
JPMorgan analyst David Perry flagged on Thursday that adjusted operating profit for the quarter came in at EUR 28.1 million, 7% below the analyst consensus. Adjusted free cash flow also fell short of expectations. Those two shortfalls, dpa-AFX noted, were the source of the pressure on the share price.
The nine-month picture offers some counterweight. OHB reported total output of EUR 946.5 million, up 10%. Adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 99.7 million, while adjusted EBIT climbed 30% to EUR 66.9 million. The bottom line told a different story: net income for the period fell 22%.
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Targets Held, Estimates Trimmed
NuWays cut its estimates for 2026 and 2027 on Friday, citing somewhat weaker growth and higher one-off costs. The research house kept its buy recommendation and its EUR 340 price target intact. The company's own guidance, confirmed on Thursday, remains a total output of roughly EUR 1.4 billion for 2026 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.5% to 11.0%.
The consensus price target sits at EUR 298, unchanged, with individual views ranging from EUR 250 to EUR 358. That spread is wide, and it underlines how much uncertainty the valuation still carries even when analysts agree on the direction of growth. A consensus target is not a promise of where the shares will trade — it is the yardstick against which coming results will be measured.
Orders Versus Execution
What underpins the optimism is the order book. At the end of September, backlog stood at EUR 3.94 billion, up from EUR 3.12 billion a year earlier. The pipeline was around EUR 20 billion. The two are not interchangeable: backlog represents orders already booked, while the pipeline is potential business that may or may not materialise, and should not be treated as secured revenue.
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So two forces are pulling in opposite directions. A bulging order book supports the growth case; the recent misses on profit and cash flow raise the bar for execution. The decisive test for the shares is not the level of the price targets but whether OHB can convert the additional business it expects into earnings and cash. The consensus has bet on both more revenue and a far steeper profit increase — which means the market will be watching closely just how much of that extra turnover actually reaches the bottom line.
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