Rheinmetall's Guidance Trim Hands Sceptics a €900 Anchor
Published on 11/12/2026 at 16:30 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two brokers have converged on the same €900 price target for Rheinmetall, and neither is shouting buy. BofA Securities cut the defence contractor to "Neutral" from "Buy" on Monday, slicing its target to €900 from €1,300, while Berenberg trimmed its own target to €900 from €1,020 on Tuesday and kept a "Hold" rating. A third analyst moved from €1,350 to €1,100 on Monday but stuck with a buy recommendation — leaving the bulls outnumbered at the top of the coverage list.
The downgrades landed after Rheinmetall walked back its 2026 revenue outlook to roughly €13.2bn, down from an earlier range of €13.7–14.2bn. Management pinned the shortfall on two bottlenecks: the Bundeswehr's Arminius project, which is slipping into next year, and delays in acceptance testing for artillery ammunition. The margin guide came down alongside it, to around 18.5% from roughly 19%. BofA tied its more cautious stance to softer-than-hoped growth in armoured vehicles and artillery.
A Belgian Order Lands in the Same Week
The gloom did not go unanswered. Also on Monday, Rheinmetall booked a major Belgian order for Skyranger air-defence systems, a contract the company values in the triple-digit millions of euros. It is the kind of win that would ordinarily steady the stock — but it arrived into a market already reworking its sums on the group's growth trajectory.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Investors have been voting with their feet. The shares fell 6.3% in the prior session, and were down another 4.3% as the second target cut circulated.
Nine-Month Figures Show the Engine Still Runs
Strip out the revised forecasts and the underlying numbers remain robust. Rheinmetall reported group revenue of €8.38bn for the first nine months of 2026, a gain of 38% year on year. Operating profit topped €1.3bn over the same stretch, and the operating margin climbed to 16.0% from 13.1% a year earlier.
The company reiterated the lowered full-year guidance in its third-quarter 2026 statement, again attributing the revenue shifts to Arminius and to the artillery ammunition acceptance tests. For now, the debate is less about demand than about timing — and about how much patience the market will extend while the schedule catches up.
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