Samsung's Memory Bookings Are Full Into 2027 — Yet Foreign Investors Keep Heading for the Exit
Published on 10/11/2026 at 17:03 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Samsung Electronics has locked up the bulk of its memory output well before it rolls off the lines. Roughly 80% of its memory chip production for 2027 is already tied to long-term supply contracts, according to a report citing Korea Economic Daily — a level of forward visibility that extends far beyond the current year and covers HBM, the high-bandwidth memory that AI systems depend on.
The arrangements, which Nvidia, Google and Microsoft are said to have signed with terms exceeding five years, shift the focus away from individual orders toward multi-year capacity utilization. Samsung has already told investors on an earnings call that nearly every major customer is requesting long-term deals, with demand proving difficult to serve.
Prepayments and Take-or-Pay Terms Are Now Standard
Industry practice for these memory contracts typically involves prepayments of 20–25% and binding purchase obligations, with agreements running five years and rolling over by one year at a time. The report describes these conditions as sector norms rather than confirmed terms for every Samsung deal — a distinction worth keeping in mind.
What the contracts do not do is guarantee sustained high profits. In a market downturn, customers and manufacturers could renegotiate or walk away from their agreements. Long-term commitments reduce uncertainty; they do not eliminate demand risk.
HBM4 Push Runs Into Physical Limits
Samsung says its HBM capacity for 2026 is fully covered by orders, and HBM revenue is expected to triple compared with 2025. The company is pairing that demand visibility with an aggressive build-out. Alongside SK hynix, it is developing the next generation of HBM, though technical progress does not translate into immediate broad deployment. Heat generation and low manufacturing yields are complicating the use of higher-capacity stacks.
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Samsung is pushing HBM4 with 16 layers, while Nvidia is initially relying on the 12-layer variant for Vera Rubin. A broad rollout of the taller stacks is not expected until after 2027. For investors, that separates two storylines: HBM demand is already secured by orders, but the timing of the next technical step depends on whether it can actually be deployed at scale.
Record Profit, Retreating Foreign Money
The preliminary earnings guidance released Thursday, pointing to a record result, underscores the strength of the business. Foreign investors, however, keep selling. Their stake in Samsung stood at 46.38% as of today, after touching 46.37% on Tuesday — the lowest level in roughly 18 years. From this year's peak of 52.40%, the foreign share has dropped 6.02 percentage points.
Yuanta Securities analysts attribute the outflows to high US yields, oil prices and weaker risk appetite rather than any deterioration in the industry. The selling pressure is not confined to Samsung: foreign investors have net sold more than 197 trillion won worth of Kospi shares this year. Against that backdrop, strong results alone are unlikely to reverse the capital flows, according to the brokerage.
A company-specific buyer has also disappeared. Samsung's share buyback ended Tuesday, removing a source of demand while foreign investors continue to sell — a combination that can blunt the market impact of strong corporate news. A completed buyback does not automatically mean further declines, though.
A Memory Boom That Doesn't Lift Every Division
Samsung last week guided toward a preliminary operating profit of 107.4 trillion won and revenue of 195 trillion won for the third quarter of 2026. That record figure stands in sharp contrast to the foreign retreat. Demand for memory chips used in AI infrastructure, HBM among them, is driving the business, according to Reuters — but the upswing is not evenly spread across the conglomerate. Higher component prices are weighing on consumer electronics, while the foundry division continues to face challenges. The memory boom should not be mistaken for uniformly favorable conditions everywhere.
Full quarterly results are due on October 29. Until then, two layers sit side by side for anyone assessing the stock: a strong operating performance and an unfavorable environment for capital inflows. More durable support would more likely emerge if easing selling pressure accompanied the earnings power. The record profit on its own has not yet brought that turn.
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