SAP's Cloud Engine and Legal All-Clear Lift Shares, Yet the Charts Still Tell a Cautionary Tale
Published on 08/03/2026 at 03:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The software giant's shares closed Friday at €159.40, up 1.65 percent on the day — a move that capped a week in which investors finally caught a break on two fronts: a clean sweep on antitrust matters and a fresh reminder that the cloud transformation is still accelerating.
The German Federal Cartel Office dropped its preliminary probe into SAP on July 30, declining to open a formal abuse-of-proceedings case. That followed the European Commission's decision on July 9 to close its own investigation after the company offered binding commitments. Two jurisdictions, one outcome: the regulatory overhang that had weighed on the stock is now gone.
A Cloud Business That Keeps Delivering
The legal clarity arrived on the heels of second-quarter numbers released July 23, which showed cloud revenue climbing 22 percent — or 24 percent in currency-adjusted terms. The Cloud ERP Suite, the company's strategic core, expanded 25 percent to €5.5 billion, while non-IFRS operating profit rose 7 percent (9 percent currency-adjusted). The current cloud backlog, a key forward-looking metric, also accelerated noticeably.
That growth, however, comes with a cost. The acquisitions of Dremio and Prior Labs are pressuring margins in the near term, forcing management to trim its full-year adjusted operating profit guidance slightly. Investors are now weighing two forces: the ongoing migration wave ahead of the 2027 support cutoff for legacy on-premise software, against worries that global IT spending could cool if the economy's massive AI investments fail to produce the promised productivity gains.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The Chart Picture: Brighter, But Not Clear
The stock has clawed back ground over the past 30 trading sessions, gaining 13.45 percent and recovering roughly a quarter of the distance from its 52-week low of €127.52, hit on July 23. It now sits 10.32 percent above the 50-day moving average of €144.49 and has cleared the 100-day line at €147.05. The relative strength index stands at 64.1 — firm, but not yet in overbought territory.
Yet the longer-term picture remains sobering. The shares are still 38.36 percent below the 52-week high of €258.60 reached in late July 2025, and 8.74 percent beneath the 200-day moving average of €174.67 — a level that continues to define the overarching downtrend. Year-to-date, the stock is down 23.91 percent, and over twelve months the loss stands at 36.66 percent. With annualized volatility at 49.19 percent, this remains a bumpy ride.
What Happens Next
The immediate test is whether SAP can hold above the 50-day mark of €144.49 as the new trading week begins. A sustained position near Friday's close of €159.40 would set up a run at the 200-day line at €174.67. A slip below the 100-day average at €147.05, however, could reignite weakness and put the yearly low of €127.52 back in play.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next major catalyst arrives on October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter results. Until then, sector data on global IT investment appetite and further earnings from the tech space — including the hyperscalers, whose strong recent quarters have underscored the persistent demand for cloud infrastructure — will likely steer the tape. One analyst, Troels Højbjerg, set a price target of €201.55 on Friday, calling the shares undervalued, though the assessment stems from an automated valuation model and should be taken with a grain of salt.
With a market capitalization of €183.75 billion, SAP remains a heavyweight in the DAX. The question now is whether the combination of a clean regulatory slate and cloud momentum can finally close the gap to those pre-summer highs — or whether the margin drag from recent acquisitions and broader AI fatigue will keep the recovery in check.
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