SAP's Comeback Math: Clearing Regulatory Hurdles While Buying Its Way Into an AI Future
Published on 08/14/2026 at 17:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell a story of a company in the middle of a carefully orchestrated transformation. SAP's current cloud backlog has swelled to €22.9 billion, up 27 percent in the second quarter, while cloud revenue climbed 22 percent — or 24 percent on a currency-adjusted basis. Yet the stock, at €180.16, still sits roughly 26 percent below its 52-week high of €242.00, a gap that underscores just how much ground the software giant has had to reclaim after a bruising year.
A Regulatory Fog Lifts
The most consequential development for SAP's long-term planning came not from a product launch but from Brussels. On July 9, the European Commission accepted SAP's commitments in a long-running antitrust case involving support services for on-premises ERP software, making them legally binding. The pledges apply worldwide for ten years and will be monitored by a trustee. A week earlier, Germany's Bundeskartellamt wrapped up its preliminary review and signaled it does not currently intend to open an abuse-of-proceedings case.
For a company whose support business with existing customers carries attractive margins, the resolution removes a shadow that has hung over the shares for months. The double regulatory clearance — at both the EU and national level — gives management something that doesn't show up directly on a balance sheet: planning certainty.
Buying the Building Blocks
While the legal front was being settled, SAP went on a quiet acquisition spree with a clear thematic focus. The Reltio acquisition, completed in May, brought in master-data-management software that prepares corporate data from SAP and non-SAP systems for AI applications. July saw the close of the Dremio deal, adding an open data-lakehouse platform. Then on July 17, SAP announced Prior Labs, a Freiburg-based research outfit, with plans to invest over €1 billion in its research team over the next four years.
Three deals in a matter of months, each with a distinct data-and-AI flavor — this isn't scattershot spending but a deliberate strategy to assemble the infrastructure needed to make the cloud business AI-ready. The cost, however, is real: SAP has already trimmed its 2026 non-IFRS operating profit outlook by an estimated dilution effect of over €100 million from Dremio and Prior Labs.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Proof Points From the Field
The operational engine appears to justify the strategy. Cloud ERP Suite grew 25 percent, or 27 percent currency-adjusted, outpacing the broader cloud business. Total revenue rose 9 percent, or 11 percent on a constant-currency basis. These are the numbers that validate the acquisition thesis — the purchases are layering onto a core business that's already expanding at a double-digit clip.
Beyond the financials, SAP is accumulating tangible evidence that its products deliver measurable results. TCL SunPower rolled out SAP GROW across the Philippines, Singapore, Japan and Australia in just four months. The electronics group reports its financial close shortened by three days and inventory accuracy improved by 10 to 15 percent. TCL SunPower also became the first company in its group to activate SAP's AI assistant, Joule.
On the partner front, SAP awarded NTT DATA its gold certification as a Global Operations Partner, announced Thursday. The re-certification now covers SAP Security and SAP Business AI for the first time. NTT DATA brings over 9,300 consultants for SAP Application Management Services and Managed Cloud, backed by two decades of experience, with operations spanning Europe, North America and Africa.
A Stock That's Run Ahead of Itself
The shares have rallied roughly 33 percent in the past 30 days, closing Thursday at €180.80. That momentum has pushed technical indicators into overheated territory: the relative strength index sits at 71.1, and the stock trades about 22 percent above its 50-day average of €148.15. Investors who bought the dip have been rewarded, but the easy money may already be made.
The recovery also unfolds against a broader debate about AI valuations. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's chief executive, warned this week about a potential "AI bubble" and the extreme cyclicality of the AI infrastructure market. For SAP, the counterargument lies in projects like TCL SunPower's — repeatable, quantifiable successes that translate AI investments into concrete efficiency gains rather than abstract promises.
The integration of three acquisitions within a single year carries operational risks that will only become visible in coming quarters. And with the stock no longer cheap after its recent recovery, the margin for error is thinner. But the combination of regulatory relief, targeted AI acquisitions and a cloud business growing at double-digit rates offers a coherent narrative — one that's backed by both the order book and the customer testimonials, even if the valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
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