SAP's Comeback Trade: Cloud Momentum, Legal All-Clears, and a CEO's Skin in the Game
Published on 08/03/2026 at 13:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The software giant's shares are staging a notable recovery, with Monday's session seeing the stock jump 3.21 percent to EUR 164.52, building on Friday's close of EUR 159.40. The rebound, which has gathered pace over recent weeks, reflects a confluence of factors: regulatory hurdles cleared, robust cloud metrics, and a series of confidence signals from the executive suite and the company's capital allocation strategy.
Regulatory Clouds Part
Two antitrust concerns that had weighed on the stock have now dissipated. The European Commission closed its probe into SAP's on-premise maintenance guidelines on July 9, following binding commitments from the company to offer greater flexibility on customer licenses. Then, on July 30, Germany's Federal Cartel Office dropped its preliminary inquiries into suspected abuse of market power without launching formal proceedings. Both outcomes remove a layer of regulatory overhang that had previously capped investor enthusiasm.
The Numbers Behind the Rally
At the heart of the recovery are the second-quarter figures released on July 23. Cloud revenue climbed 24 percent on a currency-adjusted basis to EUR 6.28 billion, while the current cloud backlog expanded 26 percent to EUR 22.9 billion — a metric that offers visibility into future revenue streams. Total revenue rose 11 percent to EUR 9.88 billion, and non-IFRS operating profit advanced 7 percent to EUR 2.74 billion.
The blemish on the report card came from earnings per share, which landed at EUR 1.59 on a non-IFRS basis, short of market expectations. Management also trimmed its full-year non-IFRS operating profit guidance to a range of EUR 11.8 billion to EUR 12.2 billion, down from the previous EUR 11.9 billion to EUR 12.3 billion, citing dilution from the acquisitions of Prior Labs and Dremio. The cloud revenue target for the year, however, remains unchanged at EUR 25.8 billion to EUR 26.2 billion. Both acquisitions were finalized in July and are intended to bolster the company's "Autonomous Enterprise" strategy.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Signals from the Top
On the same day as the earnings release, CEO Christian Klein purchased SAP shares worth EUR 325,219 at an average price of EUR 133.60 — a move investors often interpret as a vote of confidence in the company's trajectory. Klein had earlier, on July 1, taken direct charge of key technology development areas with a focus on artificial intelligence integration, according to a Handelsblatt report.
The capital markets side has added further momentum. On July 27, SAP launched the second tranche of its 2026 share buyback program, worth up to EUR 2.6 billion — approximately 18.5 million shares. The broader program, running through the end of 2027, provides for repurchases of up to EUR 10 billion, signaling that the company intends to return capital to shareholders even as it pursues acquisitions.
A Divided Analyst Camp
The post-earnings response from the sell-side has been anything but uniform. Jefferies' Charles Brennan reaffirmed a "Buy" rating with a EUR 210 price target on July 23, pointing to the strength of the cloud order book. Goldman Sachs adjusted its target to EUR 215 on July 24, while Berenberg and Deutsche Bank weighed in with EUR 205 and EUR 200 targets respectively. At the more cautious end, JPMorgan held a neutral stance with a EUR 175 target, and UBS came in at EUR 164. The wide dispersion underscores the mixed picture: impressive cloud growth on one side, a lowered profit outlook on the other.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Road Ahead
Despite the recent gains, the stock still trades 5.64 percent below its 200-day average of EUR 174.35, suggesting the medium-term recovery has room to run. The shares remain 38.15 percent off their 52-week high of EUR 257.70 from August 2025. Over the past 30 days, the stock has advanced 14.30 percent.
Consultancy Carlsquare, in a market review published Monday, flagged 2027 as a pivotal year for SAP's AI transformation of its customer base, as support for legacy ECC systems winds down. The next major checkpoint arrives on October 21, when the company reports third-quarter results — a date that will also likely follow the completion of the Dremio acquisition, expected during the third quarter.
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