SAP's Double Regulatory Win Masks the Real Question Hanging Over Its Shares
Published on 07/31/2026 at 16:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The German cartel office has quietly closed its preliminary probe into SAP's dealings with competitor Celonis, finding no sufficient evidence that the Walldorf-based software giant abused its market position to block the process-mining firm's access to customers. The decision lands as the second antitrust reprieve for SAP in under a month, following the European Commission's July conclusion of its investigation into the company's maintenance policies for on-premise software. Brussels accepted legally binding commitments from SAP covering the next decade and waived any fine, according to Reuters.
For shareholders, the regulatory all-clear removes a cloud that had hovered over the stock for months. Two separate proceedings touching on SAP's competitive conduct have now closed without penalties, leaving the company free to focus on the operational story that has dominated investor attention since late July: the tension between explosive cloud growth and the margin drag from a recent acquisition spree.
The Numbers That Moved the Market
SAP published its second-quarter and first-half results on July 23, and the headline figures were undeniably strong. Cloud revenue climbed 24 percent on a currency-adjusted basis to €6.28 billion, while the current cloud backlog — a forward-looking indicator of future revenue — expanded 26 percent to €22.9 billion. IFRS earnings per share rose to €1.89 from €1.46 in the year-earlier quarter.
The catch came in the guidance. SAP trimmed its full-year operating profit forecast on a non-IFRS basis to a range of €11.8 billion to €12.2 billion, down from a previous ceiling of €12.3 billion. Management attributed the adjustment to dilution effects from recent acquisitions — namely the purchases of US data platform Dremio and AI startup Prior Labs, both completed on July 17 and both intended to bolster the company's "Business AI" strategy.
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That explanation has split the analyst community. Rob Hales of Morningstar reaffirmed his €265 fair value estimate on July 20, pointing to resilient cloud growth despite a difficult macroeconomic backdrop. Michael Briest of UBS took the opposite tack a day earlier, slashing his price target from €205 to €164 while maintaining a "Buy" rating. The wide gap between those two assessments underscores how differently the Street weighs top-line momentum against near-term margin compression.
A Founder Family Consolidates, and the CEO Buys the Dip
Amid the earnings noise, two ownership developments caught the attention of market watchers. On July 21, Udo Tschira and Harald Tschira reported a bundling of their voting rights through new voting agreements, lifting their respective stakes to 4.19 percent and 4.22 percent. Harald Tschira's corrected voting rights notification, filed under Section 40(1) of the German Securities Trading Act, showed his quota jumping from 0.57 percent to 4.22 percent as of July 20. Such arrangements don't fundamentally alter the shareholder structure, but they signal coordinated voting behavior among large holders and could strengthen the founder family's influence over strategic decisions.
More eye-catching was the insider purchase by CEO Christian Klein. On July 24, the day after the earnings release, Klein bought 2,052 SAP shares at an average price of €158.49 — a transaction worth roughly €325,000. Insider buys immediately following a share-price trough are typically read as a vote of confidence in the company's trajectory.
Buyback Tranche Two Is Underway
SAP also activated the second installment of its share repurchase program on July 27, a tranche worth up to €2.6 billion within the broader €10 billion buyback announced last year. The company expects to complete this phase by January 2027 at the latest. The timing — coming just days after the guidance cut and the subsequent dip — suggests management sees the current valuation as an opportunity to return capital at attractive levels.
Where the Stock Stands Now
The share price has been on a volatile ride. After the July 23 earnings release, the stock initially sold off, closing down 3.34 percent at €157.30 on July 24. That setback, however, only partially unwound a powerful recovery: over seven trading days, the shares advanced 11.32 percent, leaving them comfortably above the level seen immediately after the guidance revision. From the 52-week low of €127.52, touched on July 23, the stock now trades 23.35 percent higher.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technical indicators tell a more nuanced story. The shares sit 8.98 percent above their 50-day moving average, with a relative strength index of 62.9 and an annualized 30-day volatility of 49.49 percent — elevated readings that suggest the recent bounce may be running hot. More tellingly, the stock remains 10.45 percent below its 200-day average, a gap that signals the longer-term downtrend has yet to be broken despite the recent surge. On Friday, the shares showed slight weakness in intraday trading, suggesting the market had already priced in the cartel office's decision.
The next catalyst arrives on October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter numbers. By then, investors will have a clearer read on whether the cloud engine can continue compounding at its current clip — and whether the integration costs from Dremio and Prior Labs will fade quickly enough to protect the bottom line. For now, the regulatory relief is welcome, but the margin question remains the one that truly matters.
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