SAP's Regulatory All-Clear and Insider Buying Mask a Two-Speed Story
Published on 08/04/2026 at 21:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The cloud software giant finally caught a break on the regulatory front this week, but the relief rally tells only part of a more nuanced tale. Germany's Federal Cartel Office has closed its preliminary investigation into SAP SE without imposing any conditions, ending a probe that had cast a long shadow over the company's cloud ambitions.
The investigation, triggered by a complaint from competitor Celonis, had examined allegations of data-access abuse and improper bundling of the Signavio product. According to Handelsblatt, those concerns failed to hold up under scrutiny. The market's response was immediate, though the two reports differ on the exact magnitude of Tuesday's move — one puts the gain at 2.13 percent to €168.52, the other at 1.49 percent to €167.46. Either way, the stock remains roughly 3 percent below its 200-day moving average, a reminder that the medium-term downtrend has yet to be fully reversed despite a 19 percent advance over the past month.
Buybacks and Boardroom Confidence
Tuesday also brought the first interim update on SAP's 2026 share repurchase program. Between July 27 and 31, the company bought back 2,184,430 of its own shares on the Xetra exchange at a weighted average price of €157.62, for a total outlay of €344.3 million — notably below the current trading level.
Insider activity has been telling as well. Anchor investor Harald Tschira boosted his voting rights stake from 0.57 percent to 4.22 percent through voting agreements, while CEO Christian Klein purchased shares worth €325,219 at an average price of €133.60 on July 24, the day after the quarterly results landed. That timing — with the stock well below today's levels — has been widely read as a vote of confidence from the top.
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The Numbers Behind the Confidence
The second-quarter figures from July 23 provide the fundamental backbone for that optimism. Cloud revenue climbed 22 percent (24 percent in currency-adjusted terms) to €6.28 billion, while the current cloud backlog expanded 27 percent to €22.9 billion, pointing to demand that extends well beyond the current fiscal year. IFRS earnings per share rose from €1.46 to €1.89 year over year.
Yet the cost side of the ledger tells a more cautious story. SAP trimmed its non-IFRS operating profit guidance for 2026 to a range of €11.8 billion to €12.2 billion, down from the previous €11.9 billion to €12.3 billion. Management attributed the adjustment to dilution effects from the July acquisitions of Dremio and Prior Labs, both aimed at strengthening the company's business-AI platform. The takeaway for investors: growth momentum remains intact, but margin dynamics warrant closer scrutiny in the quarters ahead.
Analysts Trim Targets, Hold Their Ground
The sell-side response has been characteristically measured. Berenberg cut its price target from €215 to €205 on July 27, citing higher AI investment costs, while maintaining a Buy rating. Goldman Sachs lowered its target from €230 to €215 the same day, keeping the stock on its Conviction Buy List. Barclays followed on July 28, trimming from €255 to €220 with an Overweight stance. Other houses, including Jefferies, HSBC, JPMorgan, and UBS, have targets ranging from €164 to €210 — a wide band that reflects genuine uncertainty about how the AI spending cycle will play out.
Open Questions on the AI Front
Adding to the mix are unconfirmed media reports of internal tensions at SAP over a secretly developed AI automation product that would compete directly with partner n8n. The company has not officially confirmed the product's existence, leaving the reports in the realm of speculation for now.
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Meanwhile, SAP is also adjusting its maintenance and support policies for on-premise systems in response to requirements from the European Commission's AT.40823 proceedings. The changes are designed to give customers more flexibility in how they structure mixed cloud and on-premise environments, potentially easing migration decisions for existing clients.
The next major checkpoint arrives October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter results. Between now and then, the market will be weighing whether the regulatory relief, insider buying, and buyback support can sustain the current recovery — or whether the margin pressure from AI investments will ultimately cap the upside.
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