SAP's Two-Speed Recovery: Cloud Tailwinds Meet a Steep Chart Climb
Published on 08/03/2026 at 09:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The software giant's shares have staged an impressive comeback over the past month, yet the road back to former highs remains long and technically demanding. SAP closed Friday's session at 159.40 euros, having gained 14.30 percent over the trailing 30 days — a rebound fueled by a potent mix of strong quarterly results, a fresh capital return program, and a tailwind from across the Atlantic.
The catalyst for the recent surge came from the US, where Microsoft and Amazon delivered robust cloud numbers. Amazon's AWS division grew 37 percent, providing a sector-wide lift that European heavyweight SAP was quick to catch. The company's own second-quarter figures added fuel to the fire: cloud revenue climbed 22 percent to 6.28 billion euros (24 percent on a currency-adjusted basis), while the cloud backlog — a forward-looking indicator of future revenue — jumped 27 percent to 22.9 billion euros. Non-IFRS operating profit rose 7 percent to 2.74 billion euros.
A Capital Return Double Play
Just four days after the earnings release, SAP launched the second tranche of its 2026 share buyback program, worth up to 2.6 billion euros — roughly 18.5 million shares. The broader program, sized at 10 billion euros through the end of 2027, signals the company's intent to return capital to shareholders even as it continues acquiring. Adding to the positive signals, CEO Christian Klein purchased company shares worth 325,219 euros on July 24, a move investors often interpret as confidence in the company's direction.
The company did trim its full-year guidance for non-IFRS operating profit, now expecting 11.8 to 12.2 billion euros instead of the prior 11.9 to 12.3 billion euros range, citing dilution effects from acquisitions. The adjustment did little to dampen enthusiasm, however.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The Technical Hurdle Ahead
Despite the recent momentum — including a weekly gain of nearly six percent — the chart tells a more cautious story. SAP shares remain 38.15 percent below their 52-week high of 257.70 euros from August 2025. Year-to-date, the stock is still down 23.91 percent, and the 12-month return stands at minus 35.12 percent.
The critical test now sits at the 200-day moving average, currently at 174.67 euros. With the stock trading at 159.40 euros, that leaves a gap of nearly nine percent. A sustained break above that level would signal a genuine trend reversal; failure to do so would raise questions about whether the US-driven cloud euphoria can truly carry the stock or merely offers a pause within a broader downtrend.
The 50-day moving average at 144.49 euros represents the key support level. The RSI at 64.1 suggests buying momentum is building but has not yet reached overbought territory. However, the 30-day annualized volatility of 49.19 percent points to a nervous investor base prone to quick profit-taking.
Analyst Divergence and Structural Support
Wall Street's verdict on SAP is split. Jefferies reaffirmed its "Buy" rating with a 210-euro target on July 28, citing strong momentum in cloud subscriptions. Goldman Sachs trimmed its target from 230 to 215 euros on July 27 while maintaining its buy recommendation. Berenberg stuck with a "Buy" and 205-euro target, and Deutsche Bank saw potential at 200 euros. JPMorgan, however, remained neutral with a notably lower 175-euro target — a reminder that the valuation after the recent run-up is not universally endorsed.
Fundamentally, SAP has a structural tailwind that competitors lack. The company is sunsetting its IS-H healthcare industry solution by 2030, forcing customers to migrate to cloud products whether they choose to or not. That mandatory transition creates a predictable demand stream for the company's cloud offerings.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What Could Derail the Rally
The macro environment poses risks. China's purchasing managers' index slipped to 49.2 points, signaling weakness in the industrial sector that could delay investment decisions for new ERP systems among industrial customers. Domestically, this week brings earnings from Siemens on Thursday and Allianz on Friday — disappointing outlooks from either could reignite doubts about SAP's cloud narrative.
The next major milestone comes on October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter numbers. The closing of the Dremio acquisition, a data-lakehouse specialist announced in July, is expected in the third quarter and will provide another data point on the company's acquisition strategy.
For now, as long as the stock holds above the 50-day average, the bulls retain the upper hand. A sustainable consolidation above the 160-euro mark would set the stage for a run at the 200-day line — the moment of truth for whether this is a genuine turnaround or merely a sharp bounce in a damaged chart.
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