Shell's Australian Gas Standoff Meets Mizuho's Brighter LNG Call
Published on 10/13/2026 at 15:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Shell finds itself pushing back against Canberra on one front while drawing a more favorable read from Wall Street on another. The dual narrative captures the tension running through the energy major's outlook: regulatory friction in Australia over domestic gas supply, and an analyst upgrade at home tied to liquefied natural gas and refining.
Mizuho Raises Target, Citing LNG and Refining
Mizuho lifted its price target on Shell to 103 US dollars, pointing to improved prospects in the company's LNG business and its refinery operations. The revision, issued yesterday, reflects an analyst's expectation rather than any earnings improvement Shell itself has reported. Whether the company can validate that optimism will hinge on its third-quarter 2026 results and interim dividend, both scheduled for release on 29 October — the next hard checkpoint for investors to weigh the rosier view against actual performance.
Shares gained 1.5% yesterday, a move that sits comfortably alongside the friendlier analyst stance without proving any direct link between the target change and the day's trading. For fundamental purposes, Mizuho's reasoning carries more weight than a single session's price action.
Buyback Rolls On, Independent of Results
Shell's repurchase program continues in parallel. On Friday the company bought 1,010,530 of its own shares on the LSE and another 374,808 on XAMS, with the acquired stock earmarked for cancellation. These transactions fall under the program announced on 30 July. Goldman Sachs International is making trading decisions independently of Shell through 23 October — a window that closes just ahead of the earnings release.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Shell?
For shareholders, the cancellations complement the operational picture, though buybacks and business outlook answer different questions. Repurchases affect share count; Mizuho's assessment addresses the prospects of selected divisions. A buyback, in other words, is no substitute for evidence of stronger earnings.
Australia Warns Over Gas Reservation Plan
On the other side of the world, Shell is squaring off against Australia's proposed domestic gas reservation. Cecile Wake, who heads Shell Australia, warned today that the rules could push prices below the long-run marginal cost of new production. The company has branded the planned intervention a "sledgehammer," with its Queensland LNG operations at the center of the dispute. The objection targets a mandatory domestic supply obligation that would apply regardless of the price achievable.
Canberra intends to introduce the legislation to parliament on Wednesday. According to media reports, Queensland exporters would be required to sell one-fifth of newly produced gas domestically, aiming to deliver supply equal to 110% of forecast east-coast demand. That goes beyond merely covering expected needs — and therein lies Shell's concern. A mandated volume could depress prices enough to make new production uneconomic. The warning concerns potential consequences of the proposed rules, not effects already felt.
Existing long-term export contracts are set to remain untouched, a detail that matters for how the reservation is structured: the planned domestic-sale obligation should not be conflated with any announced cancellation of existing supply agreements.
Investment Incentives at Stake
Wake ties her criticism to the cost of additional production. Her argument is not simply about whether gas is available domestically — the price achievable must also support new projects. A sales obligation without corresponding price protection could weaken that incentive.
Shell at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Shell's position in the Australian gas market cannot be reduced to exports alone. ABC reported yesterday that Shell's Queensland Curtis LNG project has contributed net gas predominantly to the domestic market. That finding is relevant to the debate: Shell's resistance to the reservation model does not mean the project has failed to supply the home market so far.
Dutch Chemicals Remain the Counterweight
Not every division fits the brighter analyst narrative. Since March 2025, Shell has for the first time threatened closure or sale of its loss-making chemicals sites at Moerdijk and Pernis, and unions are now demanding clarity on their future.
That contrast matters for investors: Mizuho sees opportunity in LNG and refining, while Shell confronts difficult decisions in Dutch chemicals. The higher price target, then, should not be read as an unqualified endorsement of the entire portfolio. The upcoming quarterly figures will serve as the test of that operational optimism.
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