Silver Jumps 2.8% to $61.11 as Soft Data and Shrinking Inventories Fuel a Fragile Rebound
Published on 10/10/2026 at 17:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Silver prices climbed 2.8% on Friday to settle at $61.11 an ounce, lifted by a retreat in US bond yields, weaker crude, and a surprisingly downbeat reading on American consumer confidence that cooled expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening.
The metal's advance marked a sharp turn from the prior session, when the front-month contract closed at $59.43. Friday's rally pushed silver back above the psychologically significant $60 threshold and left it down 16% since the start of the year.
Consumer Sentiment Cools Rate-Hike Bets
The trigger for the reversal came from the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for October, which slumped to 46.3. While the expectations component edged up to 47.3, the gauge of current economic conditions fell to 44.7 — a record low.
For a non-yielding asset like silver, the resulting drop in capital-market interest rates provided immediate support. Futures markets now assign a markedly lower probability to a Fed rate increase at its upcoming October meeting. Investors also added modestly to exchange-traded fund holdings, injecting extra liquidity into the futures market.
COMEX Inventories Shrink
Reinforcing the macro backdrop, total silver stocks in approved COMEX warehouses fell by 1.3 million ounces on Friday versus the previous report, according to media accounts. The drawdown points to tightening physical availability even as demand patterns across industrial end-markets diverge.
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A Bullish Chart Pattern, but No Confirmed Turn
Friday's strong rebound carved out a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart — a reversal formation that could open the door to a fresh test of technical resistance. Should buyers manage to establish the price convincingly above $61, technical analysts see the $64 to $65 zone coming into focus. On the downside, Thursday's recent interim low offers initial support, followed by the August mark at $56.57.
Not everyone is convinced the move marks a durable shift. Precious metals analyst Florian Grummes described Friday's gain as not yet a confirmed trend reversal, pointing to the metal's persistent technical weakness. Any run toward the 50-day moving average, currently at $65.19, would depend heavily on gold firming in tandem, he said.
Monetary Policy Still a Headwind
The policy environment remains demanding. The Fed's recently published meeting minutes revealed that a majority of officials back further tightening steps. Market participants are now focused on October 14, when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September consumer price data — a reading that could deliver fresh signals on the central bank's rate path.
Analysts Split on the Fundamentals
On the fundamental side, the major trading houses are at odds. JPMorgan projects an average silver price of $60 to $65 an ounce over its forecast horizon, implying a broadly stable sideways range around current levels.
Daniel Ghali, head of metals at Deutsche Bank, takes a far more cautious view, warning of weakening industrial demand. China's photovoltaic sector in particular has seen silver consumption fall by roughly a third this year compared with 2025. As a result, Deutsche Bank forecasts a physical supply surplus for 2027 — a notable shift from just over a week ago, when a supply deficit was still dominating the silver price debate.
Whether the latest recovery holds therefore hinges largely on whether easing rate pressure can offset the drag from industrial demand over the medium term.
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