Silver Retreats 4.3% as Hormuz Talks, Rate Fears and a Firmer Dollar Weigh on Metals
Published on 09/29/2026 at 08:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Silver finished last week on the back foot, with the COMEX front-month contract settling at $64.71 per troy ounce — a weekly loss of 4.3% that leaves the metal trading just below its 50-day average of $65.23.
The pullback caps a stretch in which a resurgent US dollar, climbing Treasury yields and elevated energy costs combined to sap demand for the non-yielding precious metal. Sentiment had already softened midweek before turning subdued into Friday's close, as traders recalibrated their expectations for the path of monetary policy.
Stalled Hormuz Talks Keep the Pressure On
A Bloomberg report pointing to deadlocked negotiations over the shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz added to the cautious mood at the start of the trading week. With energy costs pinned at high levels as a result, pressure has been building on the Federal Reserve.
Fresh rate anxieties are at the root of the restraint. According to dpa, the quote came under pressure as investors braced for a prolonged stretch of tight policy. The CME Group's FedWatch barometer currently implies a roughly 68% probability of another rate hike at the central bank's next meeting — a scenario that followed the Fed's decision to lift its benchmark rate about two weeks ago. For silver, which pays no interest, that prospect represents a clear headwind: if yields stay elevated, fixed-income securities become more attractive relative to commodities. A stronger dollar compounds the problem by making silver more expensive for buyers outside the dollar bloc, potentially crimping global demand.
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Data Docket and Fed Calendar in View
The coming sessions could deliver decisive signals. Wednesday brings US gross domestic product figures alongside the PCE deflator, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely. Friday shifts attention to the monthly US jobs report, whose readings also carry weight for the central bank's rate decisions.
Beyond the data, the Fed's own schedule looms large. The central bank will publish the minutes of its most recent gathering on October 7, with its next regular rate decision due on October 28.
Warehouse Drawdowns Highlight Shifting Positioning
Away from the policy debate, COMEX warehouses have seen notable activity. Evaluations of the CME Group's inventory report put silver holdings there at roughly 330.1 million troy ounces in mid-September. Eligible stocks accounted for the bulk of that total at just over 232.8 million ounces, while registered inventory stood at 97.3 million ounces.
Roughly 7.2 million troy ounces left COMEX vaults the prior week, according to media reports. Registered delivery notices do not necessarily mean the metal is physically hauled away immediately, but they do point to persistent repositioning in the futures market.
Mine Supply's Slow Reflex Offers a Floor
On the supply side, structural quirks are shaping the market's medium- and long-term outlook. The recent price correction unfolded against a backdrop of only limited flexibility in mine output. Because silver is largely extracted as a by-product of industrial metals such as copper, lead and zinc, physical primary supply barely responds to short-term price swings.
Regulatory conditions are drawing attention as well. No US import tariffs or volume restrictions currently apply to silver. A January administrative decision on processed critical minerals provided only for negotiations, introducing no direct levies or quotas on the metal. Even so, market participants continue to monitor trade flows and stockpiles closely.
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