Silver's 2.8% Friday Rally to $61.11 Runs Into a Market That Isn't Buying It
Published on 10/12/2026 at 18:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Silver closed Friday's session at $61.11 an ounce, up 2.8% on the day, as a softer US dollar, retreating Treasury yields and a pullback in crude prices combined to lift the metal. A well-received auction of 30-year US government debt pushed bond yields lower, while the dollar's slide made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for overseas buyers — a mix that handed gold and silver a rare tailwind.
The energy leg of that story came straight out of Washington. Donald Trump's remarks about constructive talks with Iran, and his signal that no military strike would take place before the US midterm elections on 3 November 2026, knocked crude prices down and drained some of the immediate inflation anxiety out of the market. For non-yielding assets like silver, that is a friendlier backdrop than it sounds.
Spot traders sit on their hands
Physical market participants, though, were in no rush to chase the move. Spot demand stayed subdued after the price jump, according to media reports, with buyers having already stocked up ahead of upcoming holidays and showing little appetite at the higher level. The result was a noticeably quieter trading floor on Monday.
Vault data from London tells a similar story of ample supply. The London Bullion Market Association reported that silver held in London vaults stood at 28,985 tonnes at the end of September 2026, a 1.95% increase from the previous month. The LBMA had put end-August stocks at 28,431 tonnes.
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Two very different roadmaps for 2027
Where the market goes from here is genuinely contested. Metals Focus expects strong investment demand to be the dominant driver over the next twelve months, with silver initially tracking gold closely before accelerating once price momentum returns.
The Deutsche Bank sees it differently. In a note dated 7 October, the German lender warned that rising inventories and weakening industrial demand could flip the silver market into a surplus in 2027 — a call that cuts against the Silver Institute's projection, flagged roughly two weeks ago, of a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026.
The swing factor is solar. Global silver consumption in photovoltaic applications is expected to fall by more than 20% this year, a decline that would matter enormously if it materialises. Whether industrial demand truly fades or the energy transition keeps consumption supported is now the central question for medium-term pricing.
For the moment, silver remains below its 50-day average of $65.09 and roughly 50% beneath its 52-week high. The Federal Reserve's rate decision in late October is the next macro marker traders are watching.
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