Silver's 62-Dollar Test: How a Hormuz Thaw and a Shrinking Supply Cushion Are Colliding
Published on 08/05/2026 at 10:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Silver is knocking on the door of a level that chart-watchers have circled for weeks. XAG/USD climbed to roughly 60.95 dollars per troy ounce during Wednesday's session before extending gains to 61.49 dollars, a jump of 3.30 percent that puts the widely tracked 62-dollar resistance zone within striking distance. The move marks a fresh monthly high and comes as gold rides a similar wave, advancing 2.07 percent to 4,162.12 dollars and touching a two-week peak, with a softer dollar providing the primary tailwind.
Diplomacy and the Dollar: A Two-Sided Catalyst
The precious-metals complex is drawing strength from an unlikely source: the oil market. Brent crude traded around 79.15 dollars on Wednesday as expectations build for a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal could materialize "today or tomorrow," with Qatar confirming that mediation efforts have advanced considerably. Iran has floated a circular route via Oman that would bypass the three existing shipping corridors, though direct negotiations have yet to take place.
The diplomatic optimism is squeezing the risk premium out of crude, and that dynamic is rippling through currency markets. A weaker dollar tends to lift metals priced in the greenback, and Wednesday's session is a textbook illustration. Yet the situation on the ground remains volatile: a freighter was struck by an unidentified projectile roughly 37 kilometers northeast of Al Khasab on Tuesday, and only nine vessels transited the strait on Monday against a weekly average of 16. The Pentagon has reportedly expressed reservations about the diplomatic framework being sketched out, underscoring how fragile the path to de-escalation remains.
The Supply Squeeze Beneath the Surface
Beyond the daily headlines from the Gulf, a slower-burning story continues to underpin the bull case. The World Silver Survey 2026 projects a deficit of 46.3 million ounces this year, widening from 40.3 million in the prior year and marking a sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Cumulative stock drawdowns since 2021 now total 762 million ounces. Demand is forecast at 1,112.6 million ounces against supply of 1,066.4 million, with both sides of the ledger easing roughly two percent from last year.
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The composition of demand tells its own story. Industrial consumption slipped three percent to 639.6 million ounces and jewelry softened to 159.4 million ounces, but coin and bar investment surged 18 percent — a sign that retail buyers are using market uncertainty to accumulate physical metal. Visible inventories have thinned dramatically, from around 525 million ounces at the end of 2025 to roughly 313 million by spring 2026. More than 70 percent of global silver production emerges as a byproduct of other metal mining, a structural constraint that leaves the supply side with little flexibility; output growth for 2026 is pegged at just 1.5 percent.
Where the Charts Point Next
Technical analysts are watching the 62-dollar level with unusual intensity, though they disagree on what happens once — or if — it breaks. Klejdi Cuni identifies a breakout from a falling wedge pattern with targets at 60.60 and 62.80 dollars. Ian Cooper takes a more cautious stance, demanding confirmation above 64.65 dollars before calling a durable trend reversal; absent that, he sees scope for a pullback into the 46-to-54-dollar band. Immediate support sits around 54 dollars, and a sustained move above 62 dollars would open the door to longer-term objectives at 71, 78 and 89 dollars, according to market observers.
The CPM Group expects silver to test 60 dollars in August while flagging the possibility of a temporary dip below 56 dollars during the month, before turning more constructive over the final four months of the year. A Reuters poll puts the average analyst forecast at 71.90 dollars — comfortably above current levels but still far from the record high of 121.62 dollars set in late January.
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A Market Caught Between Two Timelines
Silver's designation on the US critical minerals list adds a strategic dimension to the investment case, reinforcing the metal's role in industries that governments are increasingly keen to secure. But for the sessions immediately ahead, the focus remains squarely on 62 dollars. A decisive breakout would validate the uptrend that has been building for weeks; a rejection and slide back through the 54-dollar support zone would darken the technical picture.
The coming days are likely to be dictated by two clocks running at different speeds. The fast one is geopolitical: Hormuz diplomacy could shift sentiment in either direction within hours. The slower one is fundamental: a supply deficit that has now persisted for six years and shows no sign of closing. Wednesday's advance suggests the market is weighing both — and for now, the bulls have the momentum.
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