Silver's Recovery Hinges on Charts, Not Just Scarcity
Published on 10/24/2026 at 11:30 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Silver bulls have a supply story and a demand story. What they lack, for now, is a chart.
The COMEX front-month contract settled yesterday at USD 53.96 per troy ounce, down 1.2% on the day. That single session tells the story of a market being pulled in two directions: a structural deficit that keeps tightening the physical picture, and a macro backdrop of inflation anxiety and rate-hike expectations that keeps capping the upside. A tight market, on its own, has not been enough to engineer a bounce.
Kedia's Conditional Case for USD 90–100
Ajay Kedia of Kedia Advisory sees buying opportunities in the current weakness, pointing to constrained supply and an industrial demand share of roughly 50%. He identifies USD 50 per ounce as the key support level — a zone where buyers may slow the decline, though it guarantees neither a floor nor a subsequent uptrend.
His bullish view comes with strings attached. Kedia attributes the selling pressure to inflation worries and rate-hike expectations tied to the US-Iran conflict, and argues that only an easing of geopolitical tension could shift that burden. Should that happen, he sees a path to USD 90–100 per ounce by the next Dhanteras festival — explicitly a conditional scenario, not a firm price forecast.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?
India Opens the Import Tap
A concrete demand-side development emerged yesterday: India granted approvals for the import of around 6,500 tonnes of silver, valid for the coming six months. According to Reuters, four precious-metals traders received the permits. The move is intended to ease supply ahead of the festive season, following a period of largely restricted silver imports since mid-May.
The catch is that dealers have reported weak demand despite the festive period, so the approvals should not be read as an equivalent surge in buying. India meets more than 80% of its silver needs through imports, yet premiums over official domestic prices fell to 45 US cents per ounce on Thursday, down from as much as USD 2.50 the week before. Those shrinking markups argue against equating import dependence with acute demand pressure — what matters for investors is not just access to the metal, but how vigorously traders and consumers actually use it.
A Sixth Straight Deficit — Against a Weaker Demand Picture
Global X expects 2026 to bring the sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in the silver market, with investment in artificial intelligence, data centres and power grids seen supporting demand over the longer run. That structural view does not erase the near-term drag: higher energy costs and a possible economic slowdown are both flagged as risks to industrial silver demand.
On that front, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus forecast a decline in industrial silver demand for 2026, with photovoltaics particularly exposed as material savings and substitution reduce the metal's intensity of use. That projection is not yet reported demand — but it explains why a purely technical rebound would not automatically clear the fundamental concerns.
Charts Still Point Down
Yesterday's technical assessments remain bearish. A break below USD 53.00 per ounce would bring the USD 50.00 mark into view as a possible next target, according to media reports. For a bullish reversal, the technical work sets two conditions: a rise above USD 55.00, and a sustained move above USD 60.00 to defuse the negative scenario. Both are conditions of a possible recovery, not announced price targets.
The distinction matters. A short-term counter-move after heavy selling is not the same as a durable stabilisation, and an approach toward oversold territory is no substitute for a confirmed reversal signal — which, per the technical assessments, has yet to appear.
Silber Preis at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Liquidity, Energy and the Fed
The weakness cannot be chalked up to industrial demand alone. Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen points to inflation pressure from rising energy prices, while Global X analyst Justin Lin flags possible liquidity-driven selling against a backdrop of falling technology shares. In other words, forced selling to raise cash and expectations for the path of interest rates are both part of the mix.
The next scheduled checkpoints are the Fed meeting on 27–28 October and the US PCE inflation report on 29 October. Reuters reports that traders overwhelmingly expect rates to stay unchanged at the upcoming meeting, while a majority anticipate a hike in December.
A durable relief rally would therefore need more than a short-term buyback: a technical reversal signal and easing pressure from rate and inflation expectations. The forecast softness in industrial demand remains a separate risk alongside both.
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