Silver Slips 3.1% as Fed Rate Bets Eclipse Middle East Tensions
Published on 09/26/2026 at 16:52 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Fresh readings on the US economy put the brakes on silver this week, with the metal surrendering ground as traders refocused on the prospect of tighter monetary policy. The COMEX front-month contract settled Friday at $64.71 an ounce, eking out a modest daily gain of 0.7% but still finishing the week down 3.1%.
The pullback traces back to September's purchasing managers' indices, which came in sturdy enough to revive bets on another rate hike in October. That shift has lifted the dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher — an uncomfortable combination for a metal that pays no coupon. With real rates climbing, silver's appeal dims by the day.
Not even escalating friction between Washington and Tehran could generate a durable safe-haven bid. The rate debate simply drowned it out.
Midweek Selloff Tests $64 Floor
Selling pressure was at its heaviest midweek, when repeated hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and lingering energy-sector inflation worries triggered a two-day rout. Silver gave up 1.0% on Thursday to close at $64.28 an ounce, and at one point COMEX contracts dipped below the $64 mark. Pre-weekend covering brought buyers back Friday, though the firm dollar capped any meaningful breakout.
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Since the Fed's rate hike just over a week ago, the metal has shed roughly 2.2%.
UBS Sticks With $70 Target
Despite the near-term drag, UBS strategist Dominic Schnider doubled down on a recovery call on September 21, projecting silver at $70 an ounce by December 2026. The Swiss bank sees further gains beyond that: $75 by March and June 2027, with $80 coming into view by September 2027. Schnider's case rests on silver's tight correlation with gold, persistent fiscal worries and longer-run downside risks for the dollar. Even so, UBS acknowledged that a more restrictive Fed is leaving visible skid marks on prices.
Other market watchers share the constructive medium-term view, pointing to the same $70 and $80 milestones as the physical market tightens.
Physical Demand Refuses to Blink
Beneath the paper-market turbulence, the physical picture remains striking. COMEX warehouses reported outflows exceeding 7 million troy ounces in the prior week, while CME Group data through September 18 showed 6,168 delivery notices for the September contract totaling 30.84 million ounces. Registered, immediately deliverable stocks at the exchange stood at just under 98 million ounces.
That combination — heavy physical offtake colliding with a hawkish Fed — is keeping volatility elevated. The structural deficit in the physical market is projected to swell to 46.3 million ounces in 2026, a figure that underpins the bullish longer-term forecasts.
For now, though, the tape belongs to US data. Until the Federal Reserve signals a looser stance, and until the uncertainty over its rate path for the coming month clears, silver's upside is likely to stay capped, with every inflation print and economic release dictating the next move.
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