Silver Slips Toward Eleven-Month Low as Fed Verdict Collides With Soft Indian Demand
Published on 10/28/2026 at 10:50 | Editorial boerse-global.deSilver is back under pressure, and the timing is unforgiving. With the Federal Reserve's rate decision due today and US inflation figures landing tomorrow, the metal finds itself squeezed between two of the most closely watched macro catalysts on the calendar — and the stronger dollar is doing it no favours.
The retreat extends a run of weakness that began last Thursday, when Reuters flagged falling silver prices amid rising oil prices and mounting inflation and rate worries. Selling pressure, in other words, is not confined to decision day. Yesterday the metal briefly touched an eleven-month low before recovering to settle at 54.38 USD per troy ounce. A separate reading put the prior day's close at 53.98 USD an ounce, underscoring how persistent the softness has been.
A Deficit Forecast Is Not a Price Floor
Against that backdrop, the long-term supply picture offers a very different story — one that has so far failed to arrest the slide. The World Silver Survey 2026, published in April by the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, projects a market deficit of 46.3 million ounces for the current year. That would mark the sixth consecutive annual shortfall.
Investors should be clear about what that number is and is not. It is a forecast, not a finalised year-end balance. A tight annual ledger describes the relationship between supply and demand across the full twelve months; it does not assert that demand is robust in every individual market, nor that the price must rise on any given day. The projected shortfall and the current sell-off simply coexist — a thin annual balance is no proof that silver has to climb in the near term.
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India's Premium Collapse Tells Its Own Story
Nowhere is that distinction sharper than in India. Four precious metals dealers surveyed by Reuters reported on Friday that import licences had been granted for roughly 6,500 tonnes of silver over a six-month period. Reuters had reported the approvals on 22 October, noting the licences are intended to serve seasonal demand.
Easing the paperwork, however, is not the same as opening the market — and it is certainly not evidence that the metal has actually moved. The restrictions are not fully dismantled, and a licence is no guarantee of volumes sold. The dealers' own commentary paints a more cautious picture than the size of the approvals might suggest: local premiums have collapsed to 45 US cents an ounce, down from as much as 2.50 USD just a week earlier. That slide, set against reports of weak jewellery and investment demand, tempers hopes for a strong buying impulse out of the subcontinent.
What Traders Are Actually Watching
For the immediate direction, attention stays fixed on the Fed, whose decision arrives today, followed by US inflation data tomorrow. Market reports ahead of the announcement pointed largely to unchanged policy rates. The dollar's strength and the looming rate call dominated yesterday's session, according to media accounts.
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The longer-run backdrop — the deficit projection and India's loosened import rules — remains just that: background. Neither has offered any shelter from the present selling pressure. And the partial stabilisation at yesterday's close does nothing to resolve the contradiction between a market that looks tight on paper and demand signals that look anything but.
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