Silver Steadies Near $57 as Mine Strike Tightens Supply and Traders Await Fed
Published on 10/19/2026 at 20:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Silver is finding its footing at the start of a new trading week, helped by a pullback in crude oil that has eased inflation worries across the precious metals complex. The metal had been under heavy pressure for weeks, and the modest gains now on show mark a respite rather than a recovery.
The shift in tone traces back to hopes that softer energy prices—prompted by suspended US sanctions and tariffs against Russia—will take the edge off inflation. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, quoted by Reuters, said cheaper oil reduces the pressure on the Federal Reserve to act. That gives the yield-free metal room to breathe after rising US Treasury yields and a firmer dollar had weighed heavily on its price.
Sticky inflation keeps the pressure on
The earlier slide had been driven in part by US price data. Consumer prices rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, while core inflation came in at 2.6%. Upstream costs were even hotter: producer prices ran 6.3% above their year-earlier level. That persistent inflation has fed fears on the futures market that interest rates will stay high for longer—a headwind for an asset that pays no coupon when fixed-income paper remains attractive.
Speculative investors have taken note. According to the latest CFTC report, financial players trimmed their net-long positions on the futures market, a retreat that mirrors growing unease over the US rate path. Occasional bouts of dollar weakness and demand for hard assets have cushioned deeper falls, but the mood among professionals is cautious.
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On Friday, the COMEX front-month contract settled at $57.13 per troy ounce. That leaves the metal down 14% on the month and 53% below its 52-week high of $121.78.
A physical squeeze beneath the macro noise
While the macro debate dominates headlines, the supply side is quietly tightening. Reports indicate that mining at Mexico's San Dimas operation came to a complete halt on Monday, following a labour dispute that the union formally escalated to a strike on 8 October after weeks of stoppage.
Operator First Majestic Silver had already reported a drop in attributable silver output to roughly 3.44 million ounces for the third quarter, down 11% year-on-year. San Dimas alone produced 859,869 ounces, a 41% shortfall against the prior-year figure. Those losses land in a market that the LBMA and the Silver Institute expect to see a slight decline in global mine output for 2026.
Industry observers also point to a sixth consecutive global supply deficit in 2026, underpinned by industrial demand tied to the build-out of technologies such as artificial intelligence. Tempered economic prospects and talk of material substitution in industry cut against that bullish case.
Two dates on the calendar
Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting on 27–28 October, which should set the tone for rates. A day later, on 29 October, the US PCE price index for September—the central bank's preferred inflation gauge—hits the tape. Those two markers are likely to decide whether futures speculators hold their cautious line or shift course.
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