Silver Traders Face a Two-Speed Market as Hajiyev Calls a Floor and UBS Warns of Rate Turbulence
Published on 10/25/2026 at 22:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Silver's near-term pain and its longer-term promise are pulling in opposite directions, leaving investors to weigh a technician's tentative floor call against a bank's explicitly conditional recovery thesis. The metal's most recent close — COMEX front-month at 53.96 USD per troy ounce on Friday — sits above the zone where market commentator Rashad Hajiyev thinks the correction could finally run out of steam, just over the 50-dollar mark.
Hajiyev, publishing his view today, expects the pullback to play out into the Federal Reserve's meeting on 28 October. He does not rule out further losses before any rebound takes hold, and he frames the timing as part of a technical forecast rather than a promise of recovery. Both the timeframe and the expected bottoming remain uncertain — a distinction that matters, because a potential floor is not the same thing as a market that has already stopped falling.
Speculative positioning backs up that caution. In the COT report for 20 October, the net long position among "managed money" participants fell by 2,114 week-on-week to 3,505 contracts. The group still held a net buying bias, but it had trimmed it sharply. The options market tells a similar story: according to The Kobeissi Letter, the three-month put-call skew rose 10 points in four weeks to ?3, its highest level since early July, signalling stronger demand for protection against falling prices.
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Rates, Oil and the Dollar Weigh on the Metal
The fundamental headwind comes mainly from rising oil prices, which have sharpened inflation worries and fuelled expectations of a tighter US monetary stance. High bond yields and a stronger dollar are adding to the pressure on precious metals, and silver has the extra burden of concerns about industrial demand. Reuters reported that on Thursday expectations of prolonged high US rates weighed on silver futures, with the metal still under pressure on Friday and no late-week rebound materialising.
That puts the Fed's decision on 28 October and the US PCE inflation data on 29 October squarely in focus. Markets have recently expected rates to stay unchanged at the 27–28 October 2026 meeting, according to media reports, while also pricing in the possibility of a hike in December given persistent price pressure. A pause alone would not prove the monetary drag has lifted; how the central bank reads inflation may matter just as much as the decision itself.
UBS Looks Past the Noise
UBS, by contrast, is betting on a later recovery, citing demand from AI infrastructure and persistent structural supply deficits. The bank tied its positive medium-term outlook explicitly to a warning about short-term turbulence from monetary policy, which means its price targets say nothing about an imminent turn in the trend. The recovery case rests on demand and supply forces that work over a longer horizon, while the recent sell-off has been explained chiefly by shifting inflation and rate expectations — two developments that can coexist for a while.
The industrial picture is mixed. Expectations of growing demand from individual future-facing sectors do not translate neatly into overall industrial usage, and Metals Focus expects mine production to edge slightly lower, partly offset by more recycling. A durable stabilisation therefore needs more than the long-term recovery story. Until the Fed meeting shows how policymakers read the inflation pressure, UBS's positive projection remains a medium-term scenario under an explicitly short-term rate caveat — and Hajiyev's floor, for now, is a counterpoint to a cautious market mood rather than confirmation that the tide has turned.
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