SK Hynix: A Currency Squeeze Threatens to Undercut the Memory Rally
Published on 09/08/2026 at 10:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The Korean chipmaker's stock is caught in a tug-of-war between an unprecedented AI-driven demand surge and a strengthening won that is quietly eroding the value of its export earnings.
SK Hynix shares have climbed roughly 30 percent over the past month, propelled by OpenAI's announcement of its GPT-6 Astra model, which reportedly relies on more than 400,000 GPUs and over 100,000 Grace-Blackwell NVLink72 clusters. The technical specs have reinforced a counterintuitive thesis among analysts: falling costs per computing unit expand overall demand for processing power—and, by extension, for memory chips—rather than dampening it.
Yet beneath the surface of the rally lies a more complicated picture. The won has appreciated sharply since early July, trading at around 1,345 per dollar after hovering above 1,599 during the summer. For an exporter like SK Hynix, that currency move threatens to eat directly into operating margins.
Nomura estimates that a 10 percent appreciation of the won would shave roughly 12 percent off SK Hynix's operating profit. Citigroup has already trimmed its third-quarter forecast by 3 percent to 74 trillion won and cut its price target to 3 million won. DB Securities takes a more sanguine view, projecting third-quarter operating profit of 78.8 trillion won for the broader market—up 4 percent month-over-month—and lifting its price target for SK Hynix to 2.3 million won.
The wide dispersion in price targets, ranging from 2.3 million to 3.1 million won, underscores just how divided the market remains on whether currency headwinds or AI demand will ultimately prevail.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
Inventory Crunch Provides the Fundamental Backdrop
The underlying support for the rally comes from an extraordinarily tight supply picture. KB Securities notes that both SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are carrying less than ten days of memory inventory—the leanest levels of the year. DRAM contract prices are expected to rise 13 to 18 percent quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, following a second quarter in which global DRAM revenue jumped roughly 59.5 percent sequentially to about 154.7 billion US dollars.
Looking further out, KB Securities projects SK Hynix's operating profit could reach 277 trillion won in 2026, with a margin of 78.1 percent. Combined with Samsung Electronics, the two companies would account for roughly 68 percent of total KOSPI earnings. The brokerage also warns that the chip shortage could intensify into 2027, as DRAM capacity is redirected toward HBM4 production for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform.
Competitive Pressures Mount Even as Demand Soars
The rally has done little to ease competitive tensions in the memory market. TrendForce data shows SK Hynix generated 38.59 billion US dollars in DRAM revenue in the second quarter, capturing a 24.9 percent market share. Samsung leads with 39.4 percent, while Micron is closing the gap at 23.3 percent—just 1.6 percentage points behind SK Hynix. Chinese rival CXMT has also gained traction, reaching 10 percent of global DRAM market share in the second quarter, according to Counterpoint.
Retail Investors Signal Skepticism
A notable countercurrent has emerged from the retail side of the market. While institutional and foreign investors have been net buyers—with foreign inflows of 2.6 trillion won into the KOSPI, including 2.3 trillion into semiconductor stocks—significant sums have simultaneously flowed into inverse products. A leveraged short ETF specifically targeting SK Hynix has attracted roughly 40.9 billion won in inflows within just a few days, suggesting a meaningful cohort of investors believes the rally has run ahead of fundamentals.
Technical Indicators Point to a Market in Balance
At 1.793.000 won, the stock sits just 0.6 percent below its 50-day moving average of 1.802.971 won—a level that signals equilibrium rather than a clear directional trend. The relative strength index of 55.3 indicates the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for movement in either direction.
The next catalyst is likely to be US consumer price data for August, which market observers say will largely determine the near-term trajectory of the won-dollar exchange rate. Should the data come in weak, further dollar depreciation could intensify the margin pressure on SK Hynix. A stabilization in the currency, by contrast, would allow the AI demand story to take center stage and potentially push the stock toward the more optimistic price targets.
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