SK Hynix's HBM Pricing Power Hinges on Whether Diversification Becomes Real Orders
Published on 11/13/2026 at 12:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Foreign investors offloaded a net 471.4 billion won worth of SK Hynix shares today, extending a retreat that saw them dump another 872 billion won in the previous session, according to Yonhap. The stock fell 3.0% to 1,216,000.00 KRW, with an early advance losing steam as Nvidia-related uncertainty, rising US Treasury yields and higher oil prices weighed on sentiment. Yet the selling tells only half the story: beneath the share-price pressure sits a memory business posting record numbers and locking in customers years ahead.
A Record Quarter as the Counterweight
SK Hynix's operating strength is hard to square with the recent capital outflow. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 reached 104.6155 trillion won, and the operating margin hit 80% — both all-time highs. The engine behind those figures is demand for memory chips, and the question for shareholders is how durably that demand converts into sales and profitability.
Long-term supply agreements offer part of the answer. Contracts with 14 major customers cover more than half of expected production capacity for 2027 and 2028, according to AJP. Management also considers it possible that supply scarcity persists through 2030. That backlog underpins utilization — provided the big buyers actually take delivery of the volumes they have committed to, a safeguard that matters most if the industry's exceptional run cools.
Where the Pricing Argument Comes In
A separate thread runs through the Korea Herald: a broadening customer base could hand SK Hynix more leverage on price. Morgan Stanley projects that by 2027 Nvidia will account for 37.3% of worldwide HBM demand, with Google close behind at 36% — a markedly more balanced split among buyers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
SemiAnalysis's price estimates show what that shift could be worth. For HBM4 shipments from SK Hynix to Nvidia in 2027, the research firm puts the range at $3–3.30 per gigabit. For other large customers in the same year, it estimates $3.70–4.10 per gigabit — meaning business outside the Nvidia relationship could command higher rates.
Contracts, Not Market Share, Set the Value
The catch is that shifting market share has to turn into actual memory orders. Nvidia's leadership change, announced yesterday, forms the backdrop here. The company says customer commitments and product plans remain in place, and pre-arranged production schedules and orders are reported by media to limit near-term risk to SK Hynix's HBM deliveries. That gives the Korean chipmaker a comparatively protected starting position as long as existing agreements hold.
The bigger unknown concerns incremental orders and future products. Analysts see a possibility that Nvidia under new leadership prioritizes investments more cautiously — a drag for SK Hynix if other customers fail to make up the difference in additional demand. At the same time, specialized AI chips could redraw the market's distribution; analysts cited by CNBC expect such developments to speed diversification without necessarily weakening HBM demand, which would leave room for SK Hynix if its memory stays in demand across alternative chip designs.
The Yardstick for Investors
A wider customer base earns its higher standing only if it brings better terms and reliable orders together. SK Hynix would hold an edge over a heavier reliance on a single large buyer, provided the new relationships prove more attractive economically. Working against that is the risk of a slower pace of AI investment: projects around AI factories, robotics and the financing of specialized cloud providers could, on the reported assessments, advance more slowly under Nvidia's new leadership — complicating diversification just as less additional memory capacity is needed.
The next concrete checkpoint is Nvidia's report on November 17, 2026, which will shape how the market reads AI demand. SK Hynix enters it with strong operating figures and contractually committed capacity. A lasting recovery gains a firmer footing if that operational cushion holds up and the selling by foreign investors eases — and if the projected customer shift translates into orders at the prices SemiAnalysis estimates.
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