SK Hynix's Memory-Supercycle Bet Faces Its Sternest Test Yet: The Won
Published on 09/08/2026 at 06:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The arithmetic of scarcity is doing heavy lifting for SK Hynix right now. Analysts at KB Securities project DRAM prices will surge 194% in 2026 and NAND prices 244%, figures that would translate into an operating profit of 277 trillion won at a staggering 78.1% margin. The firm's price target for the US listing sits near $195, with technical support pegged at $172.65.
Those numbers help explain why investors keep bidding up the stock even after a drawdown of roughly 28% to 40% from recent highs. The thesis rests on an unusually tight supply picture: KB Securities estimates memory inventories at both Samsung and SK Hynix have fallen to under ten days of coverage, largely because the new HBM4 generation consumes roughly three times the wafer volume of earlier chips. By 2027, the brokerage expects DRAM and NAND demand to outpace supply by about ten percent.
TrendForce data corroborates the squeeze. Global DRAM revenue jumped 59.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 to $154.73 billion, with SK Hynix growing 37.9% to $38.59 billion in sales. Yet the company ceded ground to rivals in the process: its market share slipped from 28.8% to 24.9%, while Micron closed the gap to just 1.6 percentage points at 23.3%.
The competitive pressure is most visible in high-bandwidth memory, the chip category powering AI accelerators. SK Hynix's HBM share fell from 58% to 50% quarter-over-quarter, even as Samsung muscled its way from 21% to 33%. Samsung has redirected 50% to 60% of its 4-nanometer capacity toward HBM4 base-die production and has been shipping initial mass volumes since February. SK Hynix retains its crown with half the market, but the moat is visibly narrowing.
Fresh momentum arrived on September 3 when OpenAI unveiled GPT-6 Astra, reigniting demand expectations for AI memory. The stock jumped 8.26% on Monday in response, with the Kospi also posting strong gains. By Tuesday, shares had added another 4.3% to reach 1,859,000 won, placing the stock roughly 3% above its 50-day moving average.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
Yet the rally is colliding with a currency problem that has analysts split. Citigroup recently trimmed its price target to 3 million won, citing concerns that a strengthening won could erode exporter margins. The won-dollar exchange rate has fallen to around 1,335, its strongest level since October 2024. The mechanics are straightforward: a firmer won reduces the local-currency value of dollar-denominated revenue.
The currency dynamics have a backstory that underscores just how intertwined SK Hynix has become with cross-border capital flows. Reuters reported that South Korean foreign-exchange authorities bought up roughly $20 billion that SK Hynix had sold into the market following its $26.5 billion ADR listing in July. That repatriation of dollar proceeds weighed on the won and was widely interpreted by market participants as a drag on the share price.
Meanwhile, the company is navigating a thicket of operational and political developments that extend well beyond chip pricing. Management pushed back on reports that it was testing Chinese semiconductor equipment maker AMEC's manufacturing tools at its facilities in China, issuing a denial over the weekend. Seoul and Washington are also in discussions over semiconductor investment in the US, conversations that could carry future conditions for major chipmakers like SK Hynix.
The domestic agenda is no less demanding. State utility Korea Electric Power Corp has proposed that SK Hynix prepay roughly 5 trillion won for electricity by 2031 to help finance grid expansion, though KEPCO stressed that participation, interest rates, and payment terms remain undecided. Such an outlay would tie up significant capital just as the company scales global production.
Labor relations have turned contentious as well. Workers narrowly rejected a tentative wage agreement, with 50.08% of 15,045 voters casting ballots against it. Management now heads back to the bargaining table with the union while simultaneously advancing its US expansion plans — SK Hynix intends to begin mass production of HBM4E chips at its Indiana fab in the third quarter of 2029.
The company's own guidance suggests the current tightness is no flash in the pan: management expects memory chip scarcity to persist through the end of 2030. Reports also indicate SK Hynix is weighing whether to outsource some base-chip production to Intel, a move that would reduce its reliance on TSMC for foundry services.
The share price has already staged a remarkable recovery from its 52-week low of 319,000 won, though the path has been volatile. Monday's 8.3% surge to 1,783,000 won followed a Friday close of 1,647,000 won, leaving the stock up 6.5% on the week and 25% over 30 days. At current levels, it sits about 2.1% below its 50-day average.
For investors, SK Hynix has become a two-sided wager. The bullish case rests on a supply-demand imbalance that looks set to persist for years, amplified by AI's insatiable appetite for memory. The bearish case hinges on a currency that keeps appreciating and competitive pressures that keep mounting. With energy negotiations, labor disputes, and trade diplomacy all in flux, the volatility that has defined recent weeks may be the only certainty.
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