SoftBank's $100 Billion Gulf Gambit Meets a Cooling OpenAI Narrative
Published on 10/10/2026 at 06:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Masayoshi Son has never been a man to pump the brakes. Even as doubts mount over how quickly artificial intelligence can actually generate revenue, the SoftBank Group chief is pressing ahead with a fundraising push that would rank among the boldest of his career. According to the Financial Times, Son is in talks with Gulf-region investors to raise as much as $100 billion for a new acquisition vehicle — capital earmarked for AI projects. Reuters, which flagged the report, noted it could not immediately verify the figures. The pattern, though, is unmistakable: money flows toward wherever the next computing revolution takes shape, regardless of scale.
OpenAI's Revenue Picture Clouds the Mood
Son's urgency to lock in fresh capital lands in a market that has grown noticeably jittery. On Thursday, Reuters reported that OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue for September came in at just under $50 billion — well below the roughly $70 billion figure that had been circulating. The disclosure weighed on technology and AI shares broadly, and SoftBank felt the chill as investors questioned how fast the sector's flagship models can be monetized.
The stakes for the Japanese conglomerate are hard to overstate. On October 1, SoftBank closed the final $10 billion tranche of a $30 billion follow-on investment in OpenAI, according to media reports. That lifted its total commitment to the ChatGPT maker to $64.6 billion, equivalent to a stake of approximately 13%. Tying that much capital to a single Silicon Valley name means SoftBank's fortunes now move in lockstep with OpenAI's.
A Seven-Day Slide in the Shares
By Friday's close in European trading, SoftBank stock stood at EUR 32.27, a decline of 12% over the preceding seven sessions. The pullback lays bare how sensitive the market has become when the earnings power of celebrated AI models risks falling short of their astronomical valuations. On the day itself, the shares managed a modest gain of 1.0% — a small reprieve in an otherwise rough stretch.
Debt Costs Draw a Harder Line
The backdrop for megaprojects of this kind has shifted dramatically. Last month SoftBank placed high-yield bonds totaling $11.1 billion, with yields reaching as high as 9.75% on the seven-year tranche. Those levels send an unambiguous message about where risk premiums now sit in credit markets. Refinancing costs for new ventures are exploding, and borrowing billions at near double-digit rates to carry a massive OpenAI position amounts to a full-throated bet.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SoftBank Group?
To keep its credit profile from buckling under the expansion, management is offering targeted relief. On Thursday, SoftBank said it would redeem all EUR 405,103,000 of its 2.875% senior notes due January 2027, at par, on October 22. The euro-denominated bond retirement — EUR 405.1 million at 100% of face value — clears an old liability but does nothing to change the core arithmetic: fresh capital is getting more expensive.
As of the end of June, the group reported a net asset value of JPY 72.3 trillion. That cushion is substantial, yet the margin for missteps narrows when institutional partners in the Middle East hesitate and firm commitments have yet to materialize.
New Ventures, From Sarawak to a Fintech Listing
Beyond the balance-sheet maneuvers, Tokyo is working to sharpen its profile. On Thursday, SoftBank signed a framework agreement with Grab Holdings and Petroleum Sarawak to explore an AI and digital infrastructure platform in the Malaysian state of Sarawak. Binding contracts or a concrete implementation are not yet part of the arrangement.
Meanwhile, the investment portfolio is making progress toward public markets. SoftBank-backed fintech OPay Digital Services Ltd. secured roughly $185 million in a private placement with Standard Bank Group, even as it prepares a U.S. IPO.
Legal Static Around Arm
Quiet is proving elusive on the legal front. Since Monday, a case between Qualcomm and Arm Holdings has been underway in a Delaware court. Qualcomm alleges that Arm is withholding contractually guaranteed chip-testing tools and is seeking to suspend licensing payments to Arm for up to five years. Arm vigorously denies any breach of contract.
The terrain for SoftBank remains demanding. Son is once again demonstrating that he will not wait for AI monetization to reach perfection before committing capital. He is building the infrastructure of tomorrow while public markets demand accountability today. Whether that uncompromising drive lays the foundation for the next technology decade — or whether the cost of capital catches up with the vision — is the question investors are being asked to answer in real time.
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